plainmoneyThe nitty-gritty of property, stocks & money for everyday Australians

plainmoney — Australian market brief — Thursday 18 Jun 2026 — 23:44 AEST

The straight answer

Wall St rose 0.7% overnight, pointing to a firmer ASX open. The Aussie is near US70.3c (mixed drivers). BTC is down 1.4% (24h).

What it means: net risk-on for AU today.

Today's moves

S&P 500+0.7%Nasdaq+0.7%Aussie $-0.5%Gold-1.6%Oil (WTI)-3.6%Iron ore-0.4%Copper-0.6%BHP-0.8%Fortescue-1.7%Bitcoin-1.4%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
8,911.10
▼ -0.6%
AUD/USD
0.7031
▼ -0.5%
Iron ore 62% Fe
101.28
▼ -0.4%
RBA cash rate
4.3%
AU 10y bond
4.9%
AU–US 10y spread
+46 bp
S&P 500
7,472.13
▲ +0.7%
Nasdaq
26,208.04
▲ +0.7%
US 10y
4.4%
▼ -5 bp
Gold
4,288.10
▼ -1.6%
WTI crude
74.05
▼ -3.6%
BTC (AUD)
90,898.00
▼ -1.4%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk appetite; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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