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plainmoney — Market brief — Tuesday 11 Aug 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street closed slightly lower overnight, with the S&P 500 down 0.1%, as oil prices jumped on geopolitical concerns. For Australia, this means the ASX 200 is expected to open little changed, while the Aussie dollar gained 0.3% to 0.7056 against the US dollar.

What's moving markets

US equities saw a slight dip, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,753.1, down 0.1%. The Nasdaq also fell 0.3% to 26,605.4, and the Dow was down 0.1% to 53,976. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, rose 3.8% to 15.5, indicating a slight increase in investor caution.

Oil prices jumped significantly, with WTI crude up 5.2% to US$82.3 and Brent crude up 5.1% to US$87.8. Gold also saw a strong gain, up 2.5% to US$4,450.4. Bitcoin fell 1.3% to 90,873 AUD.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open little changed. Iron ore fell 0.9% to US$94.5, which typically puts pressure on the big miners and the Aussie dollar. However, the AUD/USD rose 0.3% to 0.7056, likely due to a narrowing AU-US 10-year bond spread. The AU 10-year bond yield is 4.92%, while the US 10-year is 4.70%, leaving a spread of +23 basis points.

World & geopolitics

Oil prices jumped significantly overnight, with Reuters reporting that "Oil prices jump, Wall Street under pressure with Hormuz, inflation in focus." This rise in crude prices is linked to "Hormuz uncertainty," per SMH.com.au, which refers to geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane for global oil supplies. This matters for markets because any disruption to oil supply can drive up energy costs.

What it means for your money

Your super will see mixed signals, with global shares (VGS up 0.3%) performing better than Australian shares (VAS down 0.3%).

Your cost of living could be impacted by the jump in oil prices, which tends to push up petrol costs.

What to watch

The biggest upcoming catalyst is the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data, due this Wednesday (12 Aug), 10:30pm AEST. This is the one that moves global markets and, by extension, your super and the AUD.

Possible outcomes: If the CPI print comes in hotter than expected, it could signal persistent inflation, leading to expectations of higher interest rates from the US Federal Reserve. This would likely push US bond yields higher and could strengthen the US dollar, potentially softening the AUD. If the print is softer, it could suggest inflation is cooling, potentially easing pressure on the Fed and leading to lower US yields and a weaker US dollar, which might support the AUD.

The live indicator to watch is the US 10-year bond yield. If it rises sharply after the CPI release, it suggests a hot inflation print. If it falls, it points to a softer reading.

Your call

The maths leans towards watching that US CPI print closely. If it comes in hot, expect global bond yields to rise, which could put upward pressure on Australian bond yields and, in turn, potentially impact future mortgage rates. If it's soft, that pressure might ease.

Today's moves

S&P 500-0.1%Nasdaq-0.3%Aussie $+0.3%Gold+2.5%Oil (WTI)+5.2%Iron ore-0.9%Copper+1.0%BHP+0.9%Fortescue-0.2%Bitcoin-1.3%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
9,263.60
▼ -0.1%
AUD/USD
0.7056
▲ +0.3%
Iron ore 62% Fe
94.45
▼ -0.9%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
4.92%
AU–US 10y spread
+23 bp
S&P 500
7,753.11
▼ -0.1%
Nasdaq
26,605.36
▼ -0.3%
US 10y
4.70%
▲ +4 bp
Gold
4,450.40
▲ +2.5%
WTI crude
82.27
▲ +5.2%
BTC (AUD)
90,873.00
▼ -1.3%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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