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plainmoney — Market brief — Friday 02 Oct 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street closed slightly higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.2%, but the Aussie dollar slipped 0.8% to 0.6933 as global bond markets continued to sell off. This means a flat open for the ASX, and your purchasing power for imports is a bit weaker.

What's moving markets

US equities saw a small gain, with the S&P 500 at 7,666.5. The Nasdaq was flat at 26,871.6, and the Dow also saw no change at 50,926.6. The Russell 2000, which tracks smaller companies, was up 0.3% to 2,806.6. US 10-year bond yields are at 5.24%, reflecting a broader global bond sell-off.

Oil prices were mixed, with WTI crude up 2.7% to US$92.8, while Brent crude fell 1.2% to US$102.2. Gold gained 0.4% to 4,204.8. Bitcoin in AUD terms rose 1.3% to 122,033.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open little changed, following the mixed global lead. The AUD/USD fell 0.8% to 0.6933, partly due to the global bond rout. Iron ore was largely flat at US$96.6, down just 0.1%, which means little direct pressure on the big miners at the open. The AU–US 10-year bond spread is at +1 bp, indicating Australian bonds are offering a similar yield to US bonds.

World & geopolitics

Global bond markets are selling off again, pushing US Treasury yields to a 24-year peak, per Reuters. This matters for markets because higher bond yields increase borrowing costs for governments and companies. Also, per Reuters, Putin stated Russia won't supply diesel to global markets until sanctions are lifted, which could impact energy prices, as seen with the rise in WTI crude.

What it means for your money

Your super will see a flat start for the Australian component, but global equities, particularly the S&P 500, were slightly positive. Your cost of living could be impacted by the weaker AUD, making imports more expensive, and the mixed oil prices.

What to watch

The biggest catalyst this week is the US Non-farm payrolls report, due this Friday (2 Oct), 10:30pm AEST. This jobs data is a key indicator for the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.

Possible outcomes: If the print comes in hot (strong job growth), it could signal continued inflation pressure, potentially leading to higher US yields and a weaker AUD. If the print is soft (weak job growth), it might suggest the Fed could ease its hawkish stance, which could see yields fall and the AUD strengthen. The live indicator to watch is the US 10-year bond yield.

Your call

The maths leans towards continued volatility in bond markets. Watch the US jobs data closely; a strong number could push global yields higher, which would likely put more pressure on the Aussie dollar and potentially your mortgage rates down the line.

Today's moves

S&P 500+0.2%Nasdaq+0.0%Aussie $-0.8%Gold+0.4%Oil (WTI)+2.7%Iron ore-0.1%Copper+0.3%BHP-0.9%Fortescue-1.2%Bitcoin+1.3%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
8,789.30
▲ +0.9%
AUD/USD
0.6933
▼ -0.8%
Iron ore 62% Fe
96.59
▼ -0.1%
RBA cash rate
4.60%
AU 10y bond
5.25%
AU–US 10y spread
+1 bp
S&P 500
7,666.45
▲ +0.2%
Nasdaq
26,871.60
+0.0%
US 10y
5.24%
▼ -6 bp
Gold
4,204.80
▲ +0.4%
WTI crude
92.83
▲ +2.7%
BTC (AUD)
122,033.00
▲ +1.3%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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