plainmoneyThe nitty-gritty of property, stocks & money for everyday Australians

plainmoney — Market brief — Monday 05 Oct 2026 — 06:45 AEDT

The straight answer

Wall Street closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.7%, setting the ASX 200 for a firmer open. But iron ore fell 5.4% to US$91.3, which will put pressure on the big miners and the Aussie dollar today.

What's moving markets

US shares had a good run, with the S&P 500 up 0.7% to 7,722.7 and the Nasdaq up 1.2% to 27,190.9. This "risk-on" mood saw the VIX, the fear gauge, drop 6.6% to 15.3. US 10-year bond yields held steady at 5.28%.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open firmer, following the lead from Wall Street. However, iron ore, our biggest export, took a big hit, falling 5.4% to US$91.3. This will likely weigh on the Materials sector, despite the overall positive sentiment. The AUD/USD gained 0.4% to 0.6958, but the drop in iron ore could see it soften today. The AU–US 10-year bond spread is at +7 bp.

World & geopolitics

Global energy markets are tightening. Per The New York Times, China has resumed curbs on fuel exports, which will impact global supply. The Economist also reports that the world is facing an "almighty LNG crunch." This suggests ongoing pressure on energy prices, which flows through to petrol costs here.

The US Federal Reserve has been active, with ABC News reporting a rate hike for the first time since 2023, though other headlines from ABC News also noted the Fed holding rates steady more recently as inflation hit a three-year high. The mixed signals from the Fed are worth watching.

What it means for your money

Your super will see a mixed picture today. Global shares, particularly US tech, had a good night, but the fall in iron ore could drag on Australian mining stocks.

Your cost of living could feel pressure from global energy markets. With China resuming fuel export curbs and an "LNG crunch" reported, global oil prices could rise, impacting petrol prices here.

What to watch

The next big data point is China's CPI/PPI on Friday (9 Oct), 12:30pm AEDT. This will give us a clearer picture of demand from our largest trading partner. If the inflation numbers come in soft, it could signal weaker demand, further pressuring commodity prices like iron ore. If they're hot, it might suggest stronger economic activity.

Your call

The maths leans towards a firmer open for the ASX overall, driven by Wall Street. But the sharp drop in iron ore is a significant headwind for the miners and the Aussie dollar. Watch how the Materials sector performs at the open — it'll be the live read on how much that iron ore fall is really biting.

Today's moves

S&P 500+0.7%Nasdaq+1.2%Aussie $+0.4%Gold-1.0%Oil (WTI)-1.9%Iron ore-5.4%Copper+1.0%BHP+1.6%Fortescue-0.4%Bitcoin+0.5%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
8,682.10
▲ +0.8%
AUD/USD
0.6958
▲ +0.4%
Iron ore 62% Fe
91.35
▼ -5.4%
RBA cash rate
4.60%
AU 10y bond
5.34%
AU–US 10y spread
+7 bp
S&P 500
7,722.72
▲ +0.7%
Nasdaq
27,190.86
▲ +1.2%
US 10y
5.28%
▲ +4 bp
Gold
4,162.30
▼ -1.0%
WTI crude
91.11
▼ -1.9%
BTC (AUD)
122,774.00
▲ +0.5%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

Free daily brief →