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plainmoney — Market brief — Friday 26 Jun 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Global markets saw mixed trading overnight, with the S&P 500 closing down 0.0%. Tech shares showed some rebound, while oil prices fell. For Australia, the ASX 200 is expected to open little changed, following the mixed lead from Wall Street. The Australian dollar is near US$0.6913. Bitcoin (AUD) fell 2.6% to 85,981.

What it means for you: Your super fund's global equity exposure may see minor shifts, while petrol prices could ease slightly due to lower oil.

What's moving markets

Global markets were mixed overnight. The S&P 500 closed down 0.0%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.5%. The Dow, however, edged up 0.1%, and the Russell 2000 gained 0.7%. The VIX volatility index rose 1.4% to 18.9.

Commodities saw varied movements: WTI crude rose 1.9% to US$71.7, and Brent crude gained 2.0% to US$75.2. Gold climbed 1.3% to US$4,042.1, and copper surged 3.3% to US$6.1375. Iron ore was little changed at US$100.5. Bitcoin (AUD) fell 2.6% to 85,981, and Ethereum (AUD) dropped 3.3% to 2,258.5.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is anticipated to open little changed. The Australian dollar softened slightly, down 0.0% to US$0.6913, with mixed drivers influencing its movement. The AU–US 10-year bond spread remains at +38 bp.

World & geopolitics

Oil prices saw a rebound despite earlier reports of increased supply. Per TVP World, "Oil prices tumble as Strait of Hormuz reopening floods global markets" was a headline, yet crude prices rose overnight. This suggests market participants may be focusing on other demand-side factors or geopolitical tensions.

Global stock markets are showing mixed signals, with some reports highlighting fragility while others point to a rebound in tech shares. "Debt-fuelled and exposed: The fragility inside the global sharemarket" (The Australian) suggests underlying concerns, while "Rebound in tech shares pushes world markets higher, while oil prices fall" (Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal) indicates a more optimistic view driven by specific sectors. This divergence in market sentiment reflects ongoing debates about the sustainability of current valuations, particularly in the tech sector, and broader economic health.

What it means for your money

Your super: Global equity exposure may see minor shifts due to mixed international market performance.

Your cost of living: Petrol prices could ease slightly due to the fall in global oil prices.

What to watch

The next major catalyst is US Non-farm payrolls on Friday (3 Jul), 10:30pm AEST US Non-farm payrolls. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could lead to expectations of higher interest rates, potentially strengthening the US dollar and putting downward pressure on the AUD and global equities. Conversely, a weaker report could suggest the Fed may ease policy sooner, potentially softening the US dollar and supporting risk assets. The live indicator to watch will be the US 10-year bond yield, which typically rises on strong jobs data and falls on weak data.

Today's moves

S&P 500-0.0%Nasdaq-0.5%Aussie $-0.0%Gold+1.3%Oil (WTI)+1.9%Iron ore-0.0%Copper+3.3%BHP-1.6%Fortescue-1.6%Bitcoin-2.6%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
8,808.40
▲ +0.2%
AUD/USD
0.6913
+0.0%
Iron ore 62% Fe
100.52
+0.0%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
4.78%
AU–US 10y spread
+38 bp
S&P 500
7,357.49
+0.0%
Nasdaq
25,358.60
▼ -0.5%
US 10y
4.39%
▼ -6 bp
Gold
4,042.10
▲ +1.3%
WTI crude
71.68
▲ +1.9%
BTC (AUD)
85,981.00
▼ -2.6%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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