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plainmoney — Market brief — Monday 29 Jun 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Global markets saw a mixed close, with Wall Street's S&P 500 largely unchanged at 7,354, while oil prices fell. The ASX 200 is set to open little changed this Monday, following a slight gain of 0.2% on Friday to 8,764.2. The Australian dollar is near US$0.6894, down 0.1%. Bitcoin saw a 1.0% dip to 86,460. The next major catalyst is China's NBS PMI data this Wednesday (1 Jul), 11:30am AEST.

What it means for you: Your super's global component may see a slight dip, while petrol prices could ease with lower oil.

What's moving markets

US equities closed mixed, with the S&P 500 at 7,354, down 0.0%. The Nasdaq fell 0.2% to 25,297.6, while the Dow was down 0.1% to 51,876.1. The VIX volatility index eased 2.5% to 18.4. US 10-year bond yields were steady at 4.37%.

Commodities saw varied movements: WTI crude fell 3.7% to US$69.2 and Brent crude was down 3.5% to US$72.6. Gold rose 1.6% to 4,096.3, while copper gained 2.2% to 6.207. Iron ore was largely unchanged at US$100.3.

In crypto, Bitcoin (AUD) fell 1.0% to 86,460, and Ethereum (AUD) was down 0.5% to 2,279.

For Australia: The S&P/ASX 200 closed up 0.2% on Friday at 8,764.2. The Materials sector gained 0.8%, with Rio Tinto up 2.1% to 173.6, BHP up 0.8% to 59, and Fortescue up 0.7% to 19.1. Financials fell 0.2%, with CommBank down 0.4% to 162. The Australian dollar softened 0.1% against the US dollar to 0.6894. The AU-US 10-year bond spread remains at +40 bp.

World & geopolitics

Per The Age, "Wall Street's AI slump picks up pace, ASX set to advance." This highlights the ongoing theme of AI's influence on global tech valuations.

Separately, per Eurasia Review, "Shockwaves From The Gulf: The Iran War And Its Impact On The Global Economy And Energy Markets – Analysis." Geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region.

What it means for your money

Your super: The slight dip in global equities (VGS down 1.2%) and the softening AUD could see a minor impact on the global component of your super.

Your cost of living: Lower global oil prices (WTI crude -3.7%, Brent crude -3.5%) could translate to cheaper petrol at the pump.

What to watch

The next key data release is China's NBS PMI this Wednesday (1 Jul), 11:30am AEST. If the print is stronger than expected, it could signal robust demand, potentially supporting commodity prices and the AUD; a weaker print could suggest slowing growth, putting downward pressure on these assets. The live indicator to watch will be movements in iron ore futures and the AUD/USD cross.

Today's moves

S&P 500-0.0%Nasdaq-0.2%Aussie $-0.1%Gold+1.6%Oil (WTI)-3.7%Iron ore-0.0%Copper+2.2%BHP+0.8%Fortescue+0.7%Bitcoin-1.0%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
8,764.20
▲ +0.2%
AUD/USD
0.6894
▼ -0.1%
Iron ore 62% Fe
100.33
+0.0%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
4.77%
AU–US 10y spread
+40 bp
S&P 500
7,354.02
+0.0%
Nasdaq
25,297.62
▼ -0.2%
US 10y
4.37%
▼ -2 bp
Gold
4,096.30
▲ +1.6%
WTI crude
69.23
▼ -3.7%
BTC (AUD)
86,460.00
▼ -1.0%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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