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plainmoney — Market brief — Tuesday 07 Jul 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Global markets saw a "risk-on" tone overnight, with the S&P 500 rising 0.7% as AI-related stocks rebounded. This positive sentiment is expected to see the ASX 200 open firmer today. The Australian dollar gained 0.6% to US$0.6957, reflecting the broader risk appetite. Gold also saw a significant rise of 1.5%. The next key market catalyst is US CPI data, due this Wednesday (8 Jul), 10:30pm AEST.

What it means for you: Your super balance may see a boost from global equity gains and a firmer Australian dollar.

What's moving markets

US equities closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.7% to 7,537.4, the Nasdaq gaining 1.1% to 26,121.2, and the Dow rising 0.3% to 53,055.9. This broad advance was attributed to a rebound in AI-related stocks, per the Union-Bulletin. The VIX volatility index fell 3.6% to 15.6, indicating reduced market uncertainty. US 10-year bond yields were at 4.48%.

Commodities were mixed. Copper surged 2.3%, while gold rose 1.5% to 4,176.2. Brent crude was up 0.5% to 72.1, and WTI crude gained 0.1% to 68.8. Iron ore, however, saw a slight dip of 0.1% to 98.2. Bitcoin (AUD) increased 1.5% to 91,723.

For Australia: The positive global sentiment is expected to lead to a firmer open for the ASX 200. The Australian dollar strengthened 0.6% against the US dollar to 0.6957, also gaining 1.0% against the Japanese Yen to 112.7. The AU-US 10-year bond spread remains at +32 bp. The RBA cash rate is currently 4.35%.

World & geopolitics

Global markets showed resilience overnight, with a "risk-on" tone prevailing. Per Reuters, stocks gained and oil dipped as Iran and chips swung markets. The rebound in AI-related stocks, as reported by the Union-Bulletin, also contributed to the positive equity performance.

What it means for your money

Your super: May see a boost from global equity gains and a firmer Australian dollar.

Your cost of living: A stronger Australian dollar makes imports, including petrol, relatively cheaper.

What to watch

The next major catalyst is US CPI data, due this Wednesday (8 Jul), 10:30pm AEST. If the print comes in hotter than expected, it could lead to higher US bond yields and a stronger US dollar, potentially softening the AUD and putting pressure on global equities. Conversely, a softer-than-expected print could see yields fall, the US dollar weaken, and risk assets like the AUD and equities rally. The live indicator to watch will be US 10-year bond yields.

Today's moves

S&P 500+0.7%Nasdaq+1.1%Aussie $+0.6%Gold+1.5%Oil (WTI)+0.1%Iron ore-0.1%Copper+2.3%BHP-0.8%Fortescue+0.9%Bitcoin+1.5%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
8,844.40
▲ +1.4%
AUD/USD
0.6957
▲ +0.6%
Iron ore 62% Fe
98.25
▼ -0.1%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
4.80%
AU–US 10y spread
+32 bp
S&P 500
7,537.43
▲ +0.7%
Nasdaq
26,121.16
▲ +1.1%
US 10y
4.48%
▼ -1 bp
Gold
4,176.20
▲ +1.5%
WTI crude
68.75
▲ +0.1%
BTC (AUD)
91,723.00
▲ +1.5%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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