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plainmoney — Market brief — Thursday 09 Jul 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Global markets saw a risk-off tone overnight, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% and the VIX volatility index up 4.8%. This was largely driven by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude jumped 6.9% to US$79.2. For Australia, the ASX 200 is expected to open little changed, while the Aussie dollar softened 0.3% to US$0.6933. The next key catalyst is China's CPI/PPI data this Thursday (9 Jul), 11:30am AEST.

What it means for you: Higher oil prices could mean dearer petrol at the pump.

What's moving markets

US equities closed lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% to 7,482.7 and the Dow falling 1.1% to 52,348.4. The Nasdaq, however, saw a slight gain of 0.2% to 25,870.7. Market volatility, as measured by the VIX, increased 4.8% to 16.9.

Commodity markets saw significant movement, with Brent crude surging 6.9% to US$79.2. WTI crude also rose 6.3% to US$74.9. In contrast, iron ore slipped 0.3% to US$98 and gold fell 1.5% to US$4,083.2. Copper was down 0.8% to US$6.12.

The AUD softened 0.3% against the US dollar, trading at US$0.6933. Bitcoin in AUD terms fell 2.3% to 89,679.

For Australia: The S&P/ASX 200 is expected to open little changed, following the mixed global lead. The overnight fall in iron ore to US$98 could weigh on the Materials sector, which was down 2.8% in the prior session. The Financials sector, however, saw a gain of 1.3% in the last session. The Australian 10-year bond yield is 4.80%, maintaining a spread of +23 bp over the US 10-year bond yield of 4.57%.

World & geopolitics

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East were a dominant theme overnight. Per Al Jazeera, "Trump’s Iran strike comments shake markets, Brent crude hits two-week high," while Reuters reported that "LatAm assets slide after Trump says Iran deal 'over'." These developments have led to a broader risk-off sentiment across global markets, as noted by NPR, which stated that "Tensions with Iran add fresh uncertainty to an already shaky global economy." The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, and any disruption there has immediate implications for energy prices.

What it means for your money

Your super: Global equity weakness and a softer AUD could impact the value of international holdings in your super.

Your cost of living: The significant rise in global oil prices could translate to higher petrol prices.

What to watch

The next major catalyst is China's CPI/PPI data this Thursday (9 Jul), 11:30am AEST. If the data comes in weaker than expected, it could signal ongoing deflationary pressures and potentially lead to further stimulus measures, which could support commodity prices. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected print might suggest improving demand. The live indicator to watch will be the immediate reaction in iron ore prices and the AUD/USD.

Today's moves

S&P 500-0.3%Nasdaq+0.2%Aussie $-0.3%Gold-1.5%Oil (WTI)+6.3%Iron ore-0.3%Copper-0.8%BHP-2.3%Fortescue+0.1%Bitcoin-2.3%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
8,803.90
▼ -0.3%
AUD/USD
0.6933
▼ -0.3%
Iron ore 62% Fe
98.02
▼ -0.3%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
4.80%
AU–US 10y spread
+23 bp
S&P 500
7,482.71
▼ -0.3%
Nasdaq
25,870.65
▲ +0.2%
US 10y
4.57%
▲ +4 bp
Gold
4,083.20
▼ -1.5%
WTI crude
74.88
▲ +6.3%
BTC (AUD)
89,679.00
▼ -2.3%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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