plainmoney — Market brief — Thursday 16 Jul 2026 — 06:45 AEST
The straight answer
Wall Street closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.4%, driven by a "risk-on" mood and a softer US inflation surprise. For Australia, this means the ASX 200 is set for a firmer open, and the Aussie dollar jumped 1.3% to 0.7009, making imports cheaper.
What's moving markets
US equities saw a positive session, with the S&P 500 rising 0.4% to 7,572.4 and the Nasdaq up 0.6% to 26,269.2. This "risk-on" sentiment was supported by a 5.0% drop in the VIX, the market's fear gauge, to 15.7. US 10-year bond yields held steady at 4.54%.
Commodities were mostly up: WTI crude rose 1.3% to US$80.4, Brent crude gained 1.4% to US$86, and copper was up 0.8% to 6.3835. Iron ore also saw a modest gain, up 0.6% to US$98.9. Bitcoin (AUD) edged up 0.3% to 92,703, while Ethereum (AUD) climbed 2.2% to 2,746.9.
For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open firmer, following the positive lead from Wall Street. The Aussie dollar surged 1.3% against the greenback to 0.7009, reflecting the global risk appetite and a slightly weaker US dollar. Iron ore's small rise should offer some support to the Materials sector, with BHP up 3.2% to 60.6 and Rio Tinto up 1.1% to 165.5 in the prior session. The RBA cash rate remains at 4.35%.
World & geopolitics
Global markets are cheering a softening in US CPI, per RTTNews, which has contributed to the "risk-on" mood. This suggests that inflation pressures might be easing. Meanwhile, AI continues to be a major theme, with Kurdistan24 reporting an "AI-Fueled Tech Rally" lifting global markets. This ongoing AI capex cycle is driving global tech valuations and impacting demand for commodities like copper and uranium, which are relevant to some Australian companies. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, per INDIA New England News, which also contributed to the positive market sentiment.
What it means for your money
Your super will see a positive bump from the firmer global markets, especially the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Your cost of living might get a small break as the stronger AUD (up 1.3%) makes imports cheaper. Petrol prices, however, could see some upward pressure from the rising oil prices.
What to watch
The biggest local catalyst is the AU Labour Force data due this Thursday (16 Jul), 11:30am AEST. This is a tier-1 release that can significantly influence the RBA's thinking on interest rates.
Possible outcomes: If the jobs data comes in strong (e.g., lower unemployment, higher participation), it could signal a tighter labour market, potentially leading to expectations of a future RBA rate hike. This would likely push Australian bond yields higher and could further strengthen the AUD. Conversely, a weak jobs report (e.g., higher unemployment, lower participation) could suggest a cooling economy, potentially reducing the likelihood of rate hikes and possibly weakening the AUD.
The live indicator to watch is the AUD/USD exchange rate and AU 2-year bond yields in the minutes following the release.
Your call
The maths leans towards a firmer open for the ASX and a stronger Aussie dollar today, thanks to the global risk-on mood and a softer US inflation print. However, the upcoming AU Labour Force data is the one that could shift the dial on RBA expectations. Worth watching the AUD and bond yields closely around 11:30am AEST — a strong print could see yields rise and put upward pressure on mortgage rates down the line.
Today's moves
The numbers
What's coming up
- 16Jul11:30AU Labour Force AUImpact: high
- 29Jul11:30AU Monthly CPI indicator AUImpact: high
What we're watching
RBA cash-rate path
US Fed path
Iron ore & China demand
China property & stimulus
AU housing cycle
Yen carry & BoJ
AI capex cycle
Global risk regime
Sources
- Reserve Bank of Australia — tier A, free
- Yahoo Finance (via yfinance) — tier B, free
- CoinGecko — tier A, free
- Google News (RSS) — tier B, free
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