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plainmoney — Market brief — Tuesday 18 Aug 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street closed lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.5%, setting a softer tone for the ASX open. Oil prices climbed, but iron ore was flat, leaving the Aussie dollar with mixed drivers.

What's moving markets

US equities saw a broad retreat overnight, with the S&P 500 falling 0.5% to 7,745.1, the Nasdaq down 0.3% to 26,644.9, and the Dow also off 0.5% to 53,459.8. This risk-off sentiment was reflected in the VIX, which jumped 6.6% to 15.2.

Commodities were mixed. WTI crude rose 2.9% to US$84.8 and Brent crude was up 2.8% to US$91. This is a significant move for petrol prices. Gold also climbed 2.1% to 4,471.6. Iron ore, however, was largely flat, up just 0.1% to US$95.2. Bitcoin (AUD) gained 1.9% to 90,574.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open softer, following the lead from Wall Street. The flat iron ore price means less direct pressure on the big miners, but the broader risk-off mood could still weigh on the market. The AUD/USD gained 0.6% to 0.7106, despite the global risk-off tone, suggesting mixed drivers for the Aussie dollar.

World & geopolitics

Oil prices are climbing, per The Age, which noted that "covert Mideast oil flows are keeping global prices in check" (japantimes.co.jp). This suggests underlying demand is strong, despite attempts to manage supply. This matters for markets as higher oil prices feed into inflation and can impact central bank decisions.

Chinese AI is disrupting global technology markets, per Northern Rivers Times. This is an ongoing theme, with AI capex driving global tech valuations and impacting demand for commodities like copper and uranium, which are relevant to some Australian companies.

What it means for your money

Your super will likely see a softer start today, reflecting the global risk-off sentiment and the expected dip in the ASX. Your cost of living could feel pressure from rising oil prices, which typically translate to higher petrol costs.

What to watch

The next big local data point is the AU Labour Force report this Thursday (20 Aug), 11:30am AEST. This is a key read on the health of the Australian economy and will influence RBA cash-rate expectations.

Your call

The maths leans towards a cautious market today, with Wall Street's dip setting the tone. Watch the Labour Force report closely; if it comes in stronger than expected, it could put upward pressure on bond yields and potentially firm up the AUD, but also raise questions about the RBA's next move on the cash rate. If it's soft, the reverse could happen.

Today's moves

S&P 500-0.5%Nasdaq-0.3%Aussie $+0.6%Gold+2.1%Oil (WTI)+2.9%Iron ore+0.1%Copper+0.1%BHP+1.4%Fortescue+0.6%Bitcoin+1.9%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
9,115.20
▼ -0.8%
AUD/USD
0.7106
▲ +0.6%
Iron ore 62% Fe
95.17
▲ +0.1%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
5.01%
AU–US 10y spread
+29 bp
S&P 500
7,745.06
▼ -0.5%
Nasdaq
26,644.91
▼ -0.3%
US 10y
4.72%
▲ +3 bp
Gold
4,471.60
▲ +2.1%
WTI crude
84.83
▲ +2.9%
BTC (AUD)
90,574.00
▲ +1.9%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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