plainmoneyThe nitty-gritty of property, stocks & money for everyday Australians

plainmoney — Market brief — Monday 24 Aug 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.4%, setting the ASX up for a firmer open this morning. The Aussie dollar also gained 0.7% to 0.7166, while iron ore was flat at US$95.2.

What's moving markets

US equities saw a broad rally, with the S&P 500 up 0.4% to 7,674.4 and the Dow up 1.0% to 53,277. This "risk-on" mood was reflected in the VIX, the market's fear gauge, which fell 5.5% to 15.1. US 10-year bond yields held steady at 4.74%.

In commodities, iron ore was largely unchanged at US$95.2, while copper gained 2.0% to 6.587. Gold jumped 3.6% to 4,680.6. Brent crude was up 0.7% to US$94.4, but WTI crude slipped 0.9% to US$87.1. Bitcoin in AUD terms saw a small gain of 0.1% to 108,058.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open firmer, taking cues from the positive US lead. The Aussie dollar strengthened 0.7% against the greenback to 0.7166, driven by mixed drivers. The flat iron ore price means little direct pressure on the big miners like BHP (−0.9%) and Fortescue (−1.1%) at the open, though Rio Tinto gained 1.4%. The AU 10-year bond yield is at 5.05%, maintaining a spread of +31 basis points over US 10-year bonds, which is a key anchor for the Aussie dollar.

World & geopolitics

Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to be a focus, with headlines from India Infoline and EnergyNow discussing how a potential US-Iran conflict could move oil prices and global stock markets. This is an ongoing thread that could impact energy costs and broader market stability. Separately, The Times of India highlighted concerns about US fiscal strain, with US$40 trillion in debt and a US$1.8 trillion deficit, noting it's worrying global markets. This speaks to the broader "US Fed path" open thread, as high debt levels can influence future interest rate decisions and the Fed's room to manoeuvre.

What it means for your money

Your super will likely see a firmer start to the week, given the positive lead from Wall Street. The stronger AUD also means your overseas investments, when converted back to Australian dollars, are worth slightly less.

What to watch

The biggest local catalyst this week is the AU Monthly CPI indicator, due this Wednesday (26 Aug), 11:30am AEST. This inflation print is crucial for the RBA's next cash rate decision.

Your call

The maths leans towards a steady RBA cash rate if the CPI indicator comes in as expected or softer. If the print is hotter than anticipated, however, it could reignite talk of further rate hikes, which would likely push up bond yields and potentially increase your mortgage repayments. Watch the market's reaction to the CPI data for clues on the RBA's next move.

Today's moves

S&P 500+0.4%Nasdaq+0.4%Aussie $+0.7%Gold+3.6%Oil (WTI)-0.9%Iron ore+0.1%Copper+2.0%BHP-0.9%Fortescue-1.1%Bitcoin+0.1%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
9,058.90
▼ -0.3%
AUD/USD
0.7166
▲ +0.7%
Iron ore 62% Fe
95.21
▲ +0.1%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
5.05%
AU–US 10y spread
+31 bp
S&P 500
7,674.37
▲ +0.4%
Nasdaq
26,180.46
▲ +0.4%
US 10y
4.74%
▲ +4 bp
Gold
4,680.60
▲ +3.6%
WTI crude
87.06
▼ -0.9%
BTC (AUD)
108,058.00
▲ +0.1%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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