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plainmoney — Market brief — Friday 18 Sep 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street had a strong night, with the S&P 500 up 1.1%, setting the ASX up for a firmer open this morning. The Aussie dollar slipped slightly to 0.7113, while iron ore held steady at US$97.4.

What's moving markets

US equities drove a "risk-on" mood overnight. The S&P 500 climbed to 7,637.8, up 1.1%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 1.7% to 26,418.3. This broad rally saw the VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, drop 12.8% to 15.4. US 10-year bond yields held at 4.95%.

In commodities, copper was a standout, rising 2.8% to 6.6135. Gold dipped slightly by 0.2% to 4,380.8. Crude oil prices fell, with WTI down 1.1% to 101.3 and Brent down 1.5% to 104.2. Bitcoin (AUD) saw a modest gain of 0.2% to 107,526.

For Australia: The positive lead from Wall Street suggests a firmer open for the S&P/ASX 200, which closed at 8,696.5 yesterday. The Aussie dollar softened slightly, down 0.2% against the greenback to 0.7113, as the US dollar strengthened. Iron ore remained flat at US$97.4, which means no immediate pressure on the big miners.

World & geopolitics

Global markets are reacting to the US Federal Reserve's rate hike, with optimism noted by aa.com.tr, despite earlier concerns about a stronger dollar and rising yields (per CNBC). This suggests that markets are finding clarity in the Fed's path, which is a key driver for global discount rates and, by extension, Australian asset valuations. Separately, Xinhua reports that China is pushing its BeiDou navigation system deeper into global markets. This is a slow burn for markets, but it signals China's ongoing tech ambitions and could affect global supply chains over time.

What it means for your money

Your super will likely see a positive bump from the firmer global equity markets, especially if the ASX follows Wall Street's lead. Your cost of living might see some relief at the petrol pump as crude oil prices eased overnight.

What to watch

The next big local data point is the AU Monthly CPI indicator, due on Wednesday (30 Sep), 11:30am AEST. This is the one that moves the RBA's thinking on interest rates.

Your call

The market is in a "risk-on" mood, driven by Wall Street's rally. If the upcoming CPI print comes in softer than expected, it could ease pressure on the RBA and potentially lead to a more stable outlook for interest rates. If it's hot, expect bond yields to react, which could put upward pressure on bank funding costs. Watch the bond market's reaction to the CPI print for the clearest signal.

Today's moves

S&P 500+1.1%Nasdaq+1.7%Aussie $-0.2%Gold-0.2%Oil (WTI)-1.1%Iron ore+0.0%Copper+2.8%BHP+0.0%Fortescue+1.3%Bitcoin+0.2%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
8,696.50
▲ +0.3%
AUD/USD
0.7113
▼ -0.2%
Iron ore 62% Fe
97.41
+0.0%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
5.20%
AU–US 10y spread
+25 bp
S&P 500
7,637.76
▲ +1.1%
Nasdaq
26,418.30
▲ +1.7%
US 10y
4.95%
▼ -6 bp
Gold
4,380.80
▼ -0.2%
WTI crude
101.28
▼ -1.1%
BTC (AUD)
107,526.00
▲ +0.2%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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