plainmoney — Market brief — Thursday 02 Jul 2026 — 06:45 AEST
The straight answer
Global markets saw a "risk-off" tone overnight, with the S&P 500 closing down 0.2% and the Nasdaq falling 0.7%. This was largely driven by tech stocks weighing down Wall Street. Oil prices also fell significantly. For Australia, the ASX 200 is expected to open little changed, while the Australian dollar is holding near US$0.6893. Bitcoin saw a notable rise, up 2.7% in AUD terms. The next major catalyst is US Non-farm payrolls this Friday (3 Jul), 10:30pm AEST.
What it means for you: Your super fund's global equity exposure may have seen a slight dip, while petrol prices could ease if oil's fall continues.
What's moving markets
Global markets experienced a "risk-off" sentiment overnight. In the US, the S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 7,483.2, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.7% to 26,040. The Dow was little changed, down 0.0% to 52,305.2. The VIX volatility index rose 0.9% to 16.6, indicating increased market uncertainty. US 10-year bond yields were 4.47%.
Commodity markets saw significant moves:
* Brent crude fell 2.4% to US$71.2, and WTI crude was down 2.0% to US$68.1.
* Gold rose 0.7% to 4,049.8.
* Iron ore was largely flat, down 0.1% to US$100.2.
* Copper fell 0.6% to 6.155.
In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (AUD) rose 2.7% to 87,050, and Ethereum (AUD) gained 3.0% to 2,343.4.
For Australia: The S&P/ASX 200 closed down 0.5% yesterday at 8,778.7 and is expected to open little changed today, reflecting the mixed global lead. The Australian dollar strengthened slightly, up 0.1% against the US dollar to 0.6893. The AU-US 10-year bond spread remains at +30 bp. The RBA cash rate is currently 4.35%.
World & geopolitics
Global markets are navigating a complex landscape, with several factors contributing to uncertainty. Per Anadolu Ajansı, global markets were mixed amid US-Iran talks and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz. This ongoing geopolitical tension, also highlighted by Yahoo! Finance Canada, is a significant driver of market sentiment. Additionally, Reuters reported that stocks were flat as traders digested Fed comments and oil fell. The fall in oil prices could be partly attributed to these geopolitical developments or expectations of future supply.
What it means for your money
Your super: Global equity exposure may see a slight dip due to the "risk-off" sentiment on Wall Street.
Your cost of living: The fall in global oil prices could lead to cheaper petrol at the pump, depending on how quickly this translates to local prices and the AUD's movement.
What to watch
The single biggest upcoming catalyst is US Non-farm payrolls this Friday (3 Jul), 10:30pm AEST. If the print comes in stronger than expected, it could signal continued inflation pressures, potentially leading to higher US bond yields and a stronger US dollar, which could put downward pressure on the AUD and global equities. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected report might suggest a cooling economy, potentially leading to lower yields and a softer US dollar, which could support the AUD and risk assets. The live indicator to watch is the US 10-year bond yield, which will react immediately to the data.
Today's moves
The numbers
What's coming up
- 3Jul22:30US Non-farm payrolls USImpact: high
- 8Jul22:30US CPI USImpact: high
- 16Jul11:30AU Labour Force AUImpact: high
- 9Jul11:30China CPI/PPI CNImpact: medium
What we're watching
RBA cash-rate path
US Fed path
Iron ore & China demand
China property & stimulus
AU housing cycle
Yen carry & BoJ
AI capex cycle
Global risk regime
Sources
- Reserve Bank of Australia — tier A, free
- Yahoo Finance (via yfinance) — tier B, free
- CoinGecko — tier A, free
- Google News (RSS) — tier B, free
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