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plainmoney — Market brief — Friday 03 Jul 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Global markets saw mixed movements overnight, with the S&P 500 flat at 7,483.2 while the Nasdaq fell 0.8% amid a tech sell-off. The Dow, however, rose 1.1%. This mixed sentiment sets the ASX 200 for a little changed open. The Australian dollar is holding near US$0.6924. Iron ore prices slipped 1.8% to US$98.4/tonne. The next major catalyst is US Non-farm payrolls, due this Friday (3 Jul), 10:30pm AEST.

What it means for you: Your super's global component may see varied returns, while the slightly firmer AUD makes imports marginally cheaper.

What's moving markets

Overnight, US equities were mixed. The S&P 500 closed flat at 7,483.2, while the Nasdaq fell 0.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, gained 1.1% to 52,900.1. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, eased 2.7% to 16.1. US 10-year bond yields were at 4.49%.

Commodity markets saw iron ore 62% Fe fall 1.8% to US$98.4. Gold rose 1.7% to 4,136.5, while WTI crude was little changed at US$68.5 and Brent crude at US$71.6. Copper gained 0.8% to 6.175.

In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin in AUD terms rose 1.6% to 88,583, and Ethereum in AUD terms was up 4.5% to 2,450.8.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open little changed. The Australian dollar strengthened slightly against the US dollar, up 0.2% to 0.6924, despite the fall in iron ore prices. The AU–US 10-year bond spread remains at +29 bp. The RBA cash rate is currently 4.35%.

World & geopolitics

Global markets are trading with caution as investors await key US jobs data, with some reports noting a tech stock decline. Per Anadolu Ajansı, "Global markets trade negative amid tech stock decline, all eyes turn to US nonfarm payrolls." Reuters also noted, "Morning Bid: Shares pull back as markets await likely payrolls beat." This focus on US Non-farm payrolls highlights the ongoing thread of the US Fed path and its impact on global discount rates.

What it means for your money

Your super: Global equity components may see varied returns due to mixed US market performance.

Your cost of living: The slightly firmer AUD near US$0.6924 makes imports marginally cheaper.

What to watch

The single biggest upcoming catalyst is US Non-farm payrolls. This is due this Friday (3 Jul), 10:30pm AEST. If the print comes in stronger than expected, it could lead to expectations of higher US interest rates, potentially strengthening the US dollar and putting downward pressure on the AUD. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected report could soften the US dollar and support the AUD. The live indicator to watch will be movements in the US 10-year bond yield and the US Dollar Index immediately following the release.

Today's moves

S&P 500+0.0%Nasdaq-0.8%Aussie $+0.2%Gold+1.7%Oil (WTI)-0.1%Iron ore-1.8%Copper+0.8%BHP-0.6%Fortescue-1.5%Bitcoin+1.6%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
8,722.90
▼ -0.6%
AUD/USD
0.6924
▲ +0.2%
Iron ore 62% Fe
98.36
▼ -1.8%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
4.77%
AU–US 10y spread
+29 bp
S&P 500
7,483.24
+0.0%
Nasdaq
25,832.67
▼ -0.8%
US 10y
4.49%
▲ +11 bp
Gold
4,136.50
▲ +1.7%
WTI crude
68.49
▼ -0.1%
BTC (AUD)
88,583.00
▲ +1.6%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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