plainmoney — Market brief — Monday 13 Jul 2026 — 06:45 AEST
The straight answer
Wall Street closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.4%, setting a firmer tone for the ASX open. The main driver was a shift in US rate expectations, with economists now seeing the Fed holding rates steady through 2026. This means less pressure on global borrowing costs, which is good for shares and should see the Aussie dollar hold its ground around 0.6946.
What's moving markets
US equities saw a positive session, with the S&P 500 up 0.4% to 7,575.4, the Nasdaq gaining 0.3% to 26,281.6, and the Dow also up 0.3% to 52,637. This "risk-on" mood was largely driven by new surveys suggesting the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady through 2026. The VIX, a measure of market fear, fell 5.1% to 15, indicating reduced investor anxiety. US 10-year bond yields held at 4.57%.
Commodities were mixed. Iron ore edged up 0.2% to US$98.7, which is a small positive for our miners. Gold fell 0.4% to 4,113.7, while WTI crude was down 0.9% to US$71.4 and Brent crude fell 0.4% to US$76. Copper, however, gained 1.1% to 6.282. Bitcoin slipped 0.2% to 92,394 AUD.
For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open firmer, following the lead from Wall Street. The positive sentiment should support the AUD, which is currently at 0.6946 against the US dollar. Our Materials sector, heavily influenced by iron ore, saw a strong 2.5% gain on Friday, with Rio Tinto up 3.8% and BHP up 2.5%. Financials also gained 0.5%. The AU-US 10-year bond spread remains at +32 basis points, which is a key factor for the Aussie dollar.
World & geopolitics
Economists now expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady through 2026, according to a WSJ survey cited by Crypto Briefing. This is a significant shift from earlier expectations of rate cuts and suggests inflation remains a concern for the US central bank. Yahoo Finance UK also reported that oil and Treasury yields are signalling rising geopolitical risk for global markets, a theme that continues to simmer.
What it means for your money
Your super will likely see a positive start to the week, with global markets and the ASX 200 looking firmer.
Your cost of living is still influenced by oil prices, which saw a slight dip overnight, but the AUD holding steady means no major immediate impact on petrol prices.
What to watch
The biggest local event this week is the AU Labour Force report on Thursday (16 Jul), 11:30am AEST. This jobs data is crucial for the RBA's cash-rate path. If the print comes in hot, showing strong employment growth, it could signal that the RBA might need to consider further rate hikes, potentially pushing up bond yields and mortgage rates. Conversely, a soft report could ease pressure on the RBA. The live indicator to watch is the market's reaction in the 3-month BABs spread, which reflects bank funding costs.
Your call
The maths leans towards a steady cash rate from the RBA for now, given the global shift in Fed expectations. However, a surprisingly strong jobs report on Thursday could quickly change that. Keep an eye on the unemployment rate and participation rate in that release — they're the ones that move the needle for the RBA and, ultimately, your repayments.
Today's moves
The numbers
What's coming up
- 16Jul11:30AU Labour Force AUImpact: high
What we're watching
RBA cash-rate path
US Fed path
Iron ore & China demand
China property & stimulus
AU housing cycle
Yen carry & BoJ
AI capex cycle
Global risk regime
Sources
- Reserve Bank of Australia — tier A, free
- Yahoo Finance (via yfinance) — tier B, free
- CoinGecko — tier A, free
- Google News (RSS) — tier B, free
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