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plainmoney — Market brief — Tuesday 14 Jul 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street closed lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.8% and the Nasdaq falling 1.6%, as geopolitical tensions pushed oil prices sharply higher. This sets the ASX 200 for a softer open today, while the Australian dollar slipped 0.4% against the US dollar.

What's moving markets

US equities saw a broad sell-off overnight. The S&P 500 fell to 7,515.3, down 0.8%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 1.6% to 25,873.2. The Dow also eased 0.3% to 52,498.6. This risk-off mood was reflected in the VIX, the market's fear gauge, which jumped 14.2% to 17.2. US 10-year bond yields held steady at 4.61%.

Oil prices surged, with WTI crude up 9.3% to US$78 and Brent crude rising 9.6% to US$83.3. This was the most-cited driver of market jitters. Gold, often a safe haven, fell 2.4% to US$4,006.3. Bitcoin also took a hit, down 3.2% to US$62,128, or 2.8% in AUD terms to 89,811. Iron ore, however, saw a slight gain of 0.2% to US$98.7.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open softer, following the lead from Wall Street. The Australian dollar eased 0.4% to 0.6920 against the US dollar, as the US dollar strengthened on risk-off sentiment. The AU-US 10-year bond spread remains at +28 bp.

World & geopolitics

Global markets faced selling pressure amid renewed geopolitical tensions, per Anadolu Ajansı. This was a key driver behind the sharp rise in oil prices, with Investors' Chronicle noting "Oil on the up as tensions rise" and Meja. Novini Ukraini. reporting "Gulf tensions push oil prices up and shake global markets." Higher oil prices can feed into inflation, which then puts pressure on central banks globally, including the RBA, to consider their interest rate paths.

What it means for your money

Your super will feel the impact of the softer global equity markets, particularly if your portfolio has significant exposure to US tech. The AUD's slip also means your overseas investments, when converted back to AUD, are worth slightly more.

Your cost of living could see pressure from the jump in oil prices, which typically translates to higher petrol prices at the pump.

What to watch

The next big local data point is the AU Labour Force report, due this Thursday (16 Jul) at 11:30am AEST. This print will give us a clearer picture of the job market's health, which is a key input for the RBA's cash rate decisions.

Your call

If the labour force data comes in stronger than expected, it could signal ongoing inflationary pressures, potentially leading to market speculation about future RBA rate hikes. This would likely support the AUD and could put upward pressure on bond yields. Conversely, a weaker report might ease rate hike concerns, potentially softening the AUD and easing bond yields. Watch the unemployment rate and participation rate closely; these are the numbers that move the needle.

Today's moves

S&P 500-0.8%Nasdaq-1.6%Aussie $-0.4%Gold-2.4%Oil (WTI)+9.3%Iron ore+0.2%Copper+0.7%BHP+0.1%Fortescue+1.6%Bitcoin-2.8%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
8,806.00
▲ +0.5%
AUD/USD
0.6920
▼ -0.4%
Iron ore 62% Fe
98.72
▲ +0.2%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
4.89%
AU–US 10y spread
+28 bp
S&P 500
7,515.34
▼ -0.8%
Nasdaq
25,873.18
▼ -1.6%
US 10y
4.61%
▲ +4 bp
Gold
4,006.30
▼ -2.4%
WTI crude
78.03
▲ +9.3%
BTC (AUD)
89,811.00
▼ -2.8%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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