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plainmoney — Market brief — Wednesday 22 Jul 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street had a good night, with the S&P 500 up 0.9%, setting the ASX up for a firmer open this morning. The Aussie dollar also pushed higher to 0.7001, but iron ore slipped 0.2%, which could weigh on the big miners.

What's moving markets

US shares rallied overnight, with the S&P 500 up 0.9% to 7,509.2, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gaining 1.3% to 25,837.2. This "risk-on" mood saw the VIX, a measure of volatility, drop 8.6% to 17.1. US 10-year bond yields held steady at 4.63%.

For Australia: The positive lead from Wall Street means the ASX 200 is expected to open firmer. The Aussie dollar gained 0.3% against the greenback to 0.7001, helped by the broader risk-on sentiment. However, iron ore, Australia's biggest export, dipped 0.2% to US$98.7, which could put some pressure on the Materials sector and the big miners like Fortescue, which was already down 1.3% yesterday. Copper, another key industrial metal, jumped 3.6% to 6.5255. Bitcoin also saw a solid gain, up 1.7% to 94,883 AUD.

World & geopolitics

Geopolitical tensions remain a key theme. Per Malay Mail, global markets rallied despite rising Middle East tensions, suggesting investors are looking past some of the immediate risks. EnergyNow also reported on how an "Iran War" is splitting global markets into clear winners and losers, though Reuters noted that oil prices haven't gone "crazy" despite five months of conflict. This suggests markets are pricing in a contained conflict. Separately, Mitrade highlighted that "AI fears are spreading across global markets," indicating ongoing investor debate about the sustainability and impact of the AI capex cycle.

What it means for your money

Your super will likely see a positive start to the day, with global shares up and the ASX expected to open firmer. Your cost of living could see some pressure from rising oil prices, with Brent crude up 2.3% to 91.3 and WTI crude up 1.4% to 84.4. This means higher petrol prices at the pump, though the stronger AUD helps to offset some of that.

What to watch

The next big local data point is the AU Monthly CPI indicator, due next Wednesday (29 Jul), 11:30am AEST. This inflation reading is the one that moves the needle for the RBA's cash rate decisions.

Your call

The maths leans towards a steady RBA cash rate for now, but a hot CPI print next week could quickly shift expectations. Watch the bond market for signals — if AU 2-year bond yields start climbing significantly before the CPI release, it suggests traders are pricing in higher inflation and potentially a rate hike. If the print comes in hot, yields could rise and the AUD soften; if soft, the reverse.

Today's moves

S&P 500+0.9%Nasdaq+1.3%Aussie $+0.3%Gold+1.9%Oil (WTI)+1.4%Iron ore-0.2%Copper+3.6%BHP+1.3%Fortescue-1.3%Bitcoin+1.7%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
8,791.30
▼ -0.1%
AUD/USD
0.7001
▲ +0.3%
Iron ore 62% Fe
98.70
▼ -0.2%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
4.91%
AU–US 10y spread
+29 bp
S&P 500
7,509.20
▲ +0.9%
Nasdaq
25,837.21
▲ +1.3%
US 10y
4.63%
▲ +3 bp
Gold
4,087.10
▲ +1.9%
WTI crude
84.42
▲ +1.4%
BTC (AUD)
94,883.00
▲ +1.7%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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