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plainmoney — Market brief — Thursday 23 Jul 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street closed slightly lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.1%, but the main story overnight was oil prices jumping on US-Iran strikes. For Australia, that means a mixed open for the ASX, with the energy sector likely to see some gains, while the AUD/USD is little changed at 0.6999.

What's moving markets

US equities saw a quiet session, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,499, down 0.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.6% to 25,690.9, while the Dow was flat at 52,218.6. The VIX, a measure of market fear, eased 2.4% to 16.6. US 10-year bond yields held steady at 4.66%.

Commodities were more active. Brent crude jumped 3.3% to US$94, and WTI crude rose 2.0% to US$86.7. Gold gained 1.7% to US$4,139.3, often seen as a safe haven. Iron ore, however, slipped 0.1% to US$98.7 a tonne. Bitcoin fell 0.7% to AUD 94,195.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open little changed. The rise in oil prices could boost local energy stocks, but the slight dip in iron ore might weigh on the big miners. The AUD/USD is holding at 0.6999, with mixed drivers. The AU 10-year bond yield is 4.91%, maintaining a spread of +26 basis points over US 10-year bonds.

World & geopolitics

Oil prices jumped overnight, with Brent crude up 3.3%, following reports of US-Iran strikes, per Reuters. This kind of geopolitical tension in the Middle East often pushes energy prices higher, which can feed into global inflation concerns. Separately, a Reuters poll of economists suggests the Fed will hold rates this year despite high inflation, though they cite high chances of a hike. This indicates ongoing uncertainty about the US interest rate path, which influences global bond yields and the cost of capital.

What it means for your money

Your super will see a mixed start, with global equities slightly down but some commodity-linked sectors potentially gaining.

Your cost of living could feel pressure from rising petrol prices if the jump in crude oil holds.

What to watch

The next major local catalyst is the AU Monthly CPI indicator, due next Wednesday (29 Jul), 11:30am AEST. This inflation print is crucial for the RBA's cash rate decisions.

Your call

The market is quiet, but the jump in oil prices is worth watching. If geopolitical tensions escalate further, oil could climb higher, pushing up petrol prices here. For your home loan, the RBA cash rate remains at 4.35%, and the 3-month bank funding spread (BABs−OIS) is at +143 basis points. This spread is a key indicator for future mortgage pricing, so keep an eye on any shifts there.

Today's moves

S&P 500-0.1%Nasdaq-0.6%Aussie $-0.0%Gold+1.7%Oil (WTI)+2.0%Iron ore-0.1%Copper-0.3%BHP+2.5%Fortescue+0.3%Bitcoin-0.7%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
8,793.30
+0.0%
AUD/USD
0.6999
+0.0%
Iron ore 62% Fe
98.65
▼ -0.1%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
4.91%
AU–US 10y spread
+26 bp
S&P 500
7,498.96
▼ -0.1%
Nasdaq
25,690.90
▼ -0.6%
US 10y
4.66%
▲ +3 bp
Gold
4,139.30
▲ +1.7%
WTI crude
86.65
▲ +2.0%
BTC (AUD)
94,195.00
▼ -0.7%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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