plainmoneyThe nitty-gritty of property, stocks & money for everyday Australians

plainmoney — Market brief — Friday 24 Jul 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street fell overnight, with the S&P 500 down 1.2% as tech stocks tumbled. This sets the ASX 200 up for a softer open today. Oil prices surged, with Brent crude hitting US$100.2, which could push up petrol prices here.

What's moving markets

US markets saw a broad sell-off, with the S&P 500 falling 1.2% to 7,408.3, the Nasdaq down 2.2% to 25,137.7, and the Dow losing 1.0% to 51,711.6. This was driven by a slump in big tech names. The VIX, a measure of market fear, jumped 12.4% to 18.7, signalling a shift to a risk-off mood.

Oil prices jumped significantly, with WTI crude up 5.9% to US$92 and Brent crude rising 6.5% to US$100.2. This is the first time Brent has been over US$100 since May. Gold fell 2.3% to 4,052.3, and copper was down 1.9% to 6.328. Iron ore saw a small dip, down 0.3% to US$98.4. Bitcoin also slipped, down 0.8% to 93,424 AUD.

For Australia: The softer Wall Street close means the ASX 200 is expected to open lower. The AUD/USD fell 0.4% to 0.6970, partly due to the broader risk-off sentiment. The small drop in iron ore could put minor pressure on the big miners, but the main driver for the open will be the US tech sell-off.

World & geopolitics

Oil prices surged overnight, with Brent crude hitting US$100.2, as reported by Reuters. This jump is being linked to concerns about the Iran war, per CNN, and is a significant move that could impact global inflation and energy costs. Separately, XTB.com noted that "AI CAPEX loses its shine?" as Alphabet and Tesla weighed on global markets, highlighting a potential cooling in the tech sector's growth narrative.

What it means for your money

Your home loan · The 3-month bank funding spread (BABs−OIS) is at +145bp. This spread is what banks pay to raise money above the expected cash rate, and it's a leading signal for mortgage pricing.

Your super · The global market downturn, particularly in tech, will likely see a softer start for your super balance today, especially if you're heavily invested in international equities.

Your cost of living · The jump in Brent crude to US$100.2 means higher global oil prices, which will likely translate to higher petrol prices at the pump here in Australia.

What to watch

The next big local data point is the AU Monthly CPI indicator, due next Wednesday (29 Jul) at 11:30am AEST. This inflation print is the one that moves the needle for the RBA's cash rate decisions.

Your call

The maths leans towards a cautious week ahead, given the global risk-off mood and surging oil prices. If the CPI indicator comes in hotter than expected next week, it could put pressure on the RBA to consider further rate hikes, which would impact mortgage repayments. If it's softer, that pressure eases. Keep an eye on the oil price for its flow-through to petrol costs.

Today's moves

S&P 500-1.2%Nasdaq-2.2%Aussie $-0.4%Gold-2.3%Oil (WTI)+5.9%Iron ore-0.3%Copper-1.9%BHP+1.5%Fortescue+1.0%Bitcoin-0.8%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
8,823.00
▲ +0.3%
AUD/USD
0.6970
▼ -0.4%
Iron ore 62% Fe
98.38
▼ -0.3%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
4.91%
AU–US 10y spread
+21 bp
S&P 500
7,408.30
▼ -1.2%
Nasdaq
25,137.69
▼ -2.2%
US 10y
4.70%
▲ +5 bp
Gold
4,052.30
▼ -2.3%
WTI crude
91.96
▲ +5.9%
BTC (AUD)
93,424.00
▼ -0.8%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

Free daily brief →