plainmoney — Market brief — Tuesday 28 Jul 2026 — 06:45 AEST
The straight answer
Wall Street was mixed overnight, with the S&P 500 up a tiny 0.02% and the Nasdaq down 0.2%, but the big news was oil prices plunging almost 10%. That means the ASX 200 is set to open little changed, but watch for a drag on energy stocks and a slight lift for the Aussie dollar as petrol costs ease.
What's moving markets
US markets were a bit of a mixed bag. The S&P 500 closed at 7,413.2, up just 0.02%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.2% to 24,932.1. The Dow, however, gained 0.5% to 52,210.1. Volatility, measured by the VIX, ticked up 0.5% to 18.7.
The big mover was oil. WTI crude fell 8.3% to US$81.9, and Brent crude dropped 9.4% to US$87.7. This is a significant drop, likely driven by geopolitical developments around Iran. Copper, a bellwether for global growth, was up 1.3% to 6.3995. Iron ore was barely changed, down 0.1% to US$98.4. Bitcoin gained 0.6% to 92,823 AUD.
For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open little changed, following the mixed lead from Wall Street. The sharp fall in oil prices could weigh on local energy stocks but might offer some relief for the AUD, which gained 0.3% to 0.6992 against the US dollar. The AU 10-year bond yield is at 4.99%, maintaining a +35 bp spread over US 10-year bonds.
World & geopolitics
Oil prices dropped sharply overnight, with Reuters reporting that "Stocks mixed, oil and Treasury yields drop on Iran-US pause." This suggests a de-escalation of tensions, which is a big deal for energy markets and global risk sentiment. The New York Times also highlighted that "Iran War Forces Energy Buyers to ‘Unshackle’ From Global Markets," indicating the broader impact of such events on supply chains and pricing. This shift in geopolitical risk around oil is the one that matters today, directly impacting global inflation expectations and, by extension, central bank policy.
What it means for your money
Your super will see a mixed global picture, with US tech slightly down but broader markets flat to up. The AUD's slight gain helps your purchasing power for international assets.
Your cost of living could see some relief at the petrol pump, given the near 10% drop in global oil prices.
What to watch
The next big local data point is the AU Monthly CPI indicator, due this Wednesday (29 Jul), 11:30am AEST. This is the one that moves your repayments this year. It will give us a fresh read on inflation, which is what the RBA watches closely.
Your call
The maths leans towards a softer inflation print potentially easing pressure on the RBA, but a hot number could quickly reignite rate hike fears. Watch the bond market reaction immediately after the CPI release — if yields fall, it suggests the market is pricing in less aggressive RBA action; if they rise, the opposite.
Today's moves
The numbers
What's coming up
- 29Jul11:30AU Monthly CPI indicator AUImpact: high
- 7Aug22:30US Non-farm payrolls USImpact: high
- 1Aug11:30China NBS PMI CNImpact: medium
- 9Aug11:30China CPI/PPI CNImpact: medium
What we're watching
RBA cash-rate path
US Fed path
Iron ore & China demand
China property & stimulus
AU housing cycle
Yen carry & BoJ
AI capex cycle
Global risk regime
Sources
- Reserve Bank of Australia — tier A, free
- Yahoo Finance (via yfinance) — tier B, free
- CoinGecko — tier A, free
- Google News (RSS) — tier B, free
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