plainmoney — Market brief — Wednesday 29 Jul 2026 — 06:45 AEST
The straight answer
Wall Street closed higher overnight, with the S&P 500 up 0.2%, but oil prices slid sharply. For Australia, the ASX 200 is expected to open little changed, while the Aussie dollar eased slightly to 0.6977.
What's moving markets
US equities saw a mixed session, but the S&P 500 managed a 0.2% gain to 7,428.8. The Dow rose 1.0% to 52,747.3, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.2% to 24,876.9. Volatility, measured by the VIX, eased 2.5% to 18.2, suggesting a slight reduction in market jitters.
Commodities saw a significant move, with Brent crude falling 5.3% to US$83.7 and WTI crude down 4.5% to US$78.9. Gold also slipped 1.1% to US$4,028. Iron ore was largely flat, down 0.1% to US$98.3. Bitcoin in AUD terms fell 1.4% to 91,585.
For Australia: The ASX 200 is set for a flat open, following the mixed lead from the US. The AUD/USD eased 0.2% to 0.6977, likely due to the broad risk-on sentiment not translating into strong AUD demand. The slight dip in iron ore to US$98.3 will keep some pressure on the big miners, though the impact was minimal overnight. The AU-US 10-year bond spread remains at +38 basis points, which is a key anchor for the Aussie dollar.
World & geopolitics
Concerns about the AI sector are starting to surface. Bloomberg reports that Singapore's MAS flagged an AI pullback as a threat to global markets, while Fitch warns that an AI market correction is emerging as a major global credit risk, per Yahoo! Finance Canada. This comes as chip stocks, including Micron, Sandisk, and Intel, saw declines, with Fast Company noting "AI uncertainty infects global markets." This thread on AI capex is an active one, and any significant slowdown could impact global tech valuations and, by extension, some Australian companies involved in related sectors like data centres or critical minerals.
What it means for your money
Your super will see a mixed impact from global markets, with US equities generally up but global tech under pressure. Your cost of living might see some relief at the petrol pump if the sharp fall in crude oil prices continues to flow through.
What to watch
The biggest local catalyst today is the AU Monthly CPI indicator at 11:30am AEST. This is the one that moves your repayments this year.
Possible outcomes: If the CPI indicator comes in hotter than expected, it could increase pressure on the RBA to consider further rate hikes, potentially pushing up bond yields and mortgage rates. If it's softer, it might ease those concerns, leading to stable or even slightly lower yields.
The live indicator to watch is the 3-month BABs spread, currently at 4.54%. If this spread widens significantly after the CPI print, it suggests banks are paying more to fund themselves, which can translate into higher mortgage rates regardless of the RBA cash rate.
Your call
The maths leans towards a cautious RBA, but today's CPI print is a big one. A hot number could see market pricing for the cash rate shift higher, putting upward pressure on variable mortgage rates. A soft print would likely keep things steady. Watch the bond market's reaction to the CPI data — particularly the AU 2-year bond yield, currently at 4.56% — as a real-time gauge of market expectations for the RBA's next move.
Today's moves
The numbers
What's coming up
- 29Jul11:30AU Monthly CPI indicator AUImpact: high
- 7Aug22:30US Non-farm payrolls USImpact: high
- 12Aug22:30US CPI USImpact: high
- 1Aug11:30China NBS PMI CNImpact: medium
- 9Aug11:30China CPI/PPI CNImpact: medium
What we're watching
RBA cash-rate path
US Fed path
Iron ore & China demand
China property & stimulus
AU housing cycle
Yen carry & BoJ
AI capex cycle
Global risk regime
Sources
- Reserve Bank of Australia — tier A, free
- Yahoo Finance (via yfinance) — tier B, free
- CoinGecko — tier A, free
- Google News (RSS) — tier B, free
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