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plainmoney — Market brief — Friday 31 Jul 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street rallied overnight, with the S&P 500 up 1.7%, driving a risk-on mood. This means the ASX 200 is set to open firmer, potentially up 1.0%, and the Aussie dollar gained 0.8% to 0.7032 against the US dollar.

What's moving markets

US shares jumped, with the S&P 500 up 1.7% to 7,437.6 and the Nasdaq gaining 2.8% to 25,122.2. This pushed the VIX, a measure of market fear, down 17.3% to 17.1. The most-cited driver was a rally in tech stocks, led by Microsoft. US 10-year bond yields held steady at 4.66%.

Commodities were mixed. Gold rose 3.3% to 4,166.7, and copper gained 3.6% to 6.4985. Brent crude fell 1.6% to 89.3, while WTI crude was down 0.4% to 84.1. Iron ore was flat at 98.3. Bitcoin in AUD terms rose 0.8% to 92,162.

For Australia: The strong Wall Street lead means the ASX 200 is expected to open firmer. The Aussie dollar gained 0.8% to 0.7032, largely due to the weaker US dollar index, which fell 0.8%. Iron ore's flat performance means the big miners like BHP (−1.7%) and Fortescue (−1.2%) might see some pressure, though Rio Tinto gained 1.8%.

World & geopolitics

Wall Street's rally was led by Microsoft, per The Age, with Apple results still to come. This highlights the ongoing influence of the AI capex cycle on global tech valuations. Separately, ABC News reported on Chinese AI shaking up global markets, reinforcing the theme of technology's impact. Reuters noted that bond markets are "doing the Fed's work," suggesting that rising US Treasury yields are tightening financial conditions without direct Fed intervention.

What it means for your money

Your super will likely see a positive start to the day, with the ASX 200 expected to open firmer on the back of global equity strength.

Your cost of living for imported goods might get a small break as the Aussie dollar strengthened against the US dollar.

What to watch

The next big data point is China's NBS PMI, due this Friday (1 Aug), 11:30am AEST. This is a key read on China's manufacturing and services sectors. A strong print could boost commodity prices and the Aussie dollar, while a weak one could do the reverse.

Your call

The global risk-on mood is a tailwind for Australian markets today. The maths leans towards a firmer open for the ASX and a stronger AUD. Keep an eye on the China PMI data tomorrow morning — if it comes in soft, it could quickly reverse some of those gains, especially for the miners and the Aussie dollar.

Today's moves

S&P 500+1.7%Nasdaq+2.8%Aussie $+0.8%Gold+3.3%Oil (WTI)-0.4%Iron ore-0.0%Copper+3.6%BHP-1.7%Fortescue-1.2%Bitcoin+0.8%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
9,038.60
▲ +1.0%
AUD/USD
0.7032
▲ +0.8%
Iron ore 62% Fe
98.27
+0.0%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
4.99%
AU–US 10y spread
+33 bp
S&P 500
7,437.63
▲ +1.7%
Nasdaq
25,122.18
▲ +2.8%
US 10y
4.66%
▲ +4 bp
Gold
4,166.70
▲ +3.3%
WTI crude
84.12
▼ -0.4%
BTC (AUD)
92,162.00
▲ +0.8%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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