plainmoneyThe nitty-gritty of property, stocks & money for everyday Australians

plainmoney — Market brief — Monday 03 Aug 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.7%, setting a firmer tone for the ASX 200 open. The Aussie dollar also gained 0.4% to 0.7056, while iron ore slipped 0.3% to US$98.0/t.

What's moving markets

US equities had a good run overnight, with the S&P 500 up 0.7% to 7,489.7 and the Nasdaq gaining 1.0% to 25,373.8. The Dow also rose 0.5% to 52,485. This "risk-on" mood saw the VIX, the fear gauge, fall 6.4% to 16. US 10-year bond yields held steady at 4.75%.

In commodities, WTI crude jumped 1.3% to US$84.7 and Brent crude rose 1.2% to US$90.1. Gold was up 0.2% to US$4,107, and copper gained 0.3% to US$6.4655. Iron ore, however, dipped 0.3% to US$98.0. Bitcoin (AUD) rose 0.8% to 89,880, and Ethereum (AUD) was up 2.0% to 2,665.9.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open firmer, taking its lead from the positive US session. The Aussie dollar gained 0.4% against the greenback to 0.7056, partly due to a weaker US Dollar Index. The slight dip in iron ore to US$98.0 could put some pressure on the Materials sector, though it saw gains of 1.6% on Friday. Financials were down 0.4%.

World & geopolitics

The Federal Reserve's interest rate path remains a hot topic. Per The Daily Star, some US Fed dissenters are calling for rate hikes over sustained inflation, even as Nhan Dan Online reports the Fed held rates steady. This ongoing debate about future rate moves creates uncertainty for global markets. Meanwhile, China's economic model is under scrutiny, with the Council on Foreign Relations noting the world shouldn't ignore its undervalued currency, and the South China Morning Post reporting China's forex regulator pledges to open up the market while tightening capital oversight. These moves could impact global trade and commodity demand.

What it means for your money

Your super will likely see a positive start to the week, reflecting the firmer global markets and the slight lift in the AUD.

What to watch

The next big market mover is US Non-farm payrolls, due this Friday (7 Aug), 10:30pm AEST. A strong jobs report could signal continued economic strength, potentially leading to higher US yields and a stronger US dollar, which could put pressure on the AUD. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected print might suggest the US economy is slowing, potentially easing pressure on the Fed to raise rates and supporting risk assets.

Your call

The market is currently in a "risk-on" mood, but the upcoming US jobs data is the one to watch. If the print comes in hot, expect US yields to rise and the AUD to soften; if soft, the reverse. The AU-US 10-year bond spread is at +19 bp, which is the main anchor for the Aussie dollar right now.

Today's moves

S&P 500+0.7%Nasdaq+1.0%Aussie $+0.4%Gold+0.2%Oil (WTI)+1.3%Iron ore-0.3%Copper+0.3%BHP+2.0%Fortescue-1.9%Bitcoin+0.8%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
8,976.80
▲ +0.1%
AUD/USD
0.7056
▲ +0.4%
Iron ore 62% Fe
98.00
▼ -0.3%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
4.93%
AU–US 10y spread
+19 bp
S&P 500
7,489.72
▲ +0.7%
Nasdaq
25,373.85
▲ +1.0%
US 10y
4.75%
▲ +8 bp
Gold
4,107.00
▲ +0.2%
WTI crude
84.67
▲ +1.3%
BTC (AUD)
89,880.00
▲ +0.8%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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