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plainmoney — Market brief — Tuesday 04 Aug 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street rallied overnight, with the S&P 500 up 1.5%, driven by falling oil prices and easing Middle East tensions. For Australia, this sets up a firmer open for the ASX 200, but the Aussie dollar slipped 0.3% to 0.7002 against the US dollar.

What's moving markets

US equities had a strong session, with the S&P 500 up 1.5% to 7,600.5, the Nasdaq gaining 2.1% to 25,913.9, and the Dow rising 1.3% to 53,178.4. This "risk-on" mood was largely attributed to a significant drop in oil prices. WTI crude fell 5.6% to US$80, and Brent crude was down 7.4% to US$83.5. Gold also saw a bump, up 1.6% to 4,113.6. Bitcoin in AUD terms rose 1.5% to 91,230.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open firmer, taking its lead from the positive US session. However, the Aussie dollar softened 0.3% to 0.7002, even as iron ore held relatively steady at US$98.0, down just 0.3%. The big miners saw mixed moves on Monday, with BHP up 0.7% to 60.7, but Rio Tinto down 0.6% to 169.5 and Fortescue falling 3.8% to 17.8.

World & geopolitics

Oil prices declined significantly overnight, with Reuters reporting that this was due to "Iran peace hopes." This easing of Middle East tensions was a key driver for the rally in global stocks. Separately, ABC News reported "Global shockwaves as South Korea's crash rattles markets," though the specific market impact wasn't detailed in the overnight moves. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, per ABC News, in its first move since the Iran war spiked oil prices, which likely contributed to the overall risk-on sentiment.

What it means for your money

Your super will likely see a positive start to the week, with global markets (via the S&P 500's 1.5% rise) and the expected firmer ASX open boosting returns.

Your cost of living might see some relief at the petrol pump, as global oil prices fell sharply.

Your purchasing power for overseas goods is slightly weaker, as the Aussie dollar slipped 0.3% against the US dollar.

What to watch

The next big data point is US Non-farm payrolls, due this Friday (7 Aug), 10:30pm AEST. This jobs report is a major indicator for the US economy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.

Your call

The market is currently in a "risk-on" mood, largely thanks to falling oil prices and stable US interest rates. If the US jobs report comes in strong, it could reinforce the idea that the Fed is done hiking, potentially boosting global equities further and putting upward pressure on the AUD. If it's weaker than expected, we could see a reversal, with yields falling and the AUD softening. Keep an eye on the US 10-year bond yield (currently 4.69%) as a live indicator of how the market is digesting the news.

Today's moves

S&P 500+1.5%Nasdaq+2.1%Aussie $-0.3%Gold+1.6%Oil (WTI)-5.6%Iron ore-0.3%Copper+1.7%BHP+0.7%Fortescue-3.8%Bitcoin+1.5%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
8,976.80
▲ +0.1%
AUD/USD
0.7002
▼ -0.3%
Iron ore 62% Fe
98.00
▼ -0.3%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
4.93%
AU–US 10y spread
+25 bp
S&P 500
7,600.50
▲ +1.5%
Nasdaq
25,913.90
▲ +2.1%
US 10y
4.69%
▼ -6 bp
Gold
4,113.60
▲ +1.6%
WTI crude
79.96
▼ -5.6%
BTC (AUD)
91,230.00
▲ +1.5%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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