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plainmoney — Market brief — Wednesday 05 Aug 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street rallied overnight, with the S&P 500 up 1.8%, setting up a firmer open for the ASX. But iron ore fell 4.4% to US$93.7, which will weigh on the big miners and the Aussie dollar.

What's moving markets

US shares had a strong session, with the S&P 500 up 1.8% to 7,736.5, the Nasdaq gaining 2.6% to 26,585, and the Dow up 1.7% to 54,085.9. This broad rally was driven by upbeat company forecasts, per Reuters. US 10-year bond yields held steady at 4.63%.

Commodities were a mixed bag. Iron ore dropped 4.4% to US$93.7, a significant move that will hit Australia's export earnings. WTI crude fell 6.2% to US$75.3 and Brent crude was down 5.9% to US$78.8. Gold, however, rose 2.5% to 4,134.1, and copper gained 1.8% to 6.628. Bitcoin (AUD) was up slightly by 0.1% to 91,322.

For Australia: The S&P/ASX 200 is expected to open firmer, likely around 9,019.3, following the strong lead from Wall Street. However, the sharp fall in iron ore will put pressure on the Materials sector and the big miners like BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue. The AUD/USD held steady at 0.7048, but the iron ore drop could see it soften today. The RBA cash rate remains at 4.35%.

World & geopolitics

Iron ore is "teetering after major trader accused of fake invoices," per the AFR. This news is the most-cited driver for the overnight drop in iron ore prices, and it matters for Australia because iron ore is our largest export. Ongoing Middle East uncertainty is also contributing to mixed global market sentiment, per Anadolu Ajansı, though this hasn't stopped the US equity rally.

What it means for your money

Your super will see a firmer open for Australian shares, but the global picture is mixed, especially with commodity prices.

Your cost of living could see some relief at the petrol pump if the drop in crude oil prices holds, but the AUD's stability means import costs are largely unchanged.

What to watch

The next big data point is US Non-farm payrolls, due this Friday (7 Aug), 10:30pm AEST. This jobs report is a key indicator for the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. If the print comes in hot, showing strong job growth, it could signal higher inflation and potentially lead to expectations of tighter Fed policy, which would likely push US bond yields higher and could soften the AUD. If the print is soft, showing weaker job growth, yields could fall, and the AUD might strengthen. The live indicator to watch is the US 10-year bond yield.

Your call

The maths leans towards a firmer ASX open thanks to Wall Street, but the significant drop in iron ore is a real headwind for our mining sector and the Aussie dollar. Keep an eye on the US jobs data this week; it's the one that could shift global interest rate expectations and, by extension, influence your super returns and the AUD's purchasing power.

Today's moves

S&P 500+1.8%Nasdaq+2.6%Aussie $+0.0%Gold+2.5%Oil (WTI)-6.2%Iron ore-4.4%Copper+1.8%BHP-0.3%Fortescue+1.6%Bitcoin+0.1%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
9,019.30
▲ +0.5%
AUD/USD
0.7048
+0.0%
Iron ore 62% Fe
93.66
▼ -4.4%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
4.93%
AU–US 10y spread
+31 bp
S&P 500
7,736.52
▲ +1.8%
Nasdaq
26,584.99
▲ +2.6%
US 10y
4.63%
▼ -6 bp
Gold
4,134.10
▲ +2.5%
WTI crude
75.34
▼ -6.2%
BTC (AUD)
91,322.00
▲ +0.1%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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