plainmoneyThe nitty-gritty of property, stocks & money for everyday Australians

plainmoney — Market brief — Friday 07 Aug 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street dipped overnight, with the S&P 500 down 0.2%, as oil prices jumped. For Australia, the ASX 200 is expected to open little changed, and the Aussie dollar slipped 0.2% to 0.7033 against the US dollar.

What's moving markets

US equities saw a slight pullback, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,710, down 0.2%. The Nasdaq also fell 0.1% to 26,348.4, and the Dow was down 0.9% to 53,885.1. This suggests a cautious tone globally.

Oil prices surged, with Brent crude up 4.8% to US$83.3 and WTI crude up 3.7% to US$78. This is a significant move, reflecting geopolitical tensions. Gold also rose 1.3% to US$4,300.2, often seen as a safe-haven asset.

The US 10-year bond yield held steady at 4.67%. Bitcoin in AUD terms fell 0.4% to 91,633.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is tipped to open flat, following the mixed lead from Wall Street. Iron ore prices were largely unchanged at US$93.9, up 0.2%, which means little direct impact on the big miners at the open. The AUD/USD slipped 0.2% to 0.7033, partly due to the stronger US dollar index, which rose 0.3%.

World & geopolitics

Global markets are showing some jitters, with headlines from Anadolu Ajansı noting that "cooling US labor market fuels growth concerns" and Yeni Safak English reporting "Global markets shaken by weak US jobs data and AI fears". This reflects ongoing worries about the health of the US economy and the sustainability of the AI-driven tech rally. EnergyNow also highlighted "Iran War Splits Global Markets Into Clear Winners and Losers", indicating that geopolitical events are having a tangible impact on commodity prices and market sentiment.

What it means for your money

Your super will see a mixed picture, with global equities (like the S&P 500) slightly down, while the ASX 200 is expected to be little changed.

Your cost of living could feel the pinch from higher petrol prices, as Brent crude jumped 4.8%.

What to watch

The big one today is the US Non-farm payrolls report, due this Friday (7 Aug) at 10:30pm AEST. This is a tier-1 catalyst for global markets.

Possible outcomes: If the jobs print comes in hotter than expected, it could signal a stronger US economy, potentially leading to higher US bond yields and a stronger US dollar. This would likely put pressure on the AUD and could see global equities dip as rate hike fears resurface. If the print is softer, it could ease inflation concerns, potentially leading to lower US yields, a weaker US dollar, and a stronger AUD.

The live indicator to watch will be the US 10-year bond yield.

Your call

The maths leans towards caution ahead of the US jobs data. A strong jobs number could push up US yields, which would likely weigh on the AUD and potentially your super returns from global equities. A weaker number might offer some relief, but also raise growth concerns. Worth watching the US 10-year bond yield for the immediate market reaction.

Today's moves

S&P 500-0.2%Nasdaq-0.1%Aussie $-0.2%Gold+1.3%Oil (WTI)+3.7%Iron ore+0.2%Copper+0.3%BHP+0.4%Fortescue+1.4%Bitcoin-0.4%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
9,227.80
▲ +0.9%
AUD/USD
0.7033
▼ -0.2%
Iron ore 62% Fe
93.91
▲ +0.2%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
4.93%
AU–US 10y spread
+26 bp
S&P 500
7,709.96
▼ -0.2%
Nasdaq
26,348.35
▼ -0.1%
US 10y
4.67%
▲ +5 bp
Gold
4,300.20
▲ +1.3%
WTI crude
78.00
▲ +3.7%
BTC (AUD)
91,633.00
▼ -0.4%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

Free daily brief →