plainmoneyThe nitty-gritty of property, stocks & money for everyday Australians

plainmoney — Market brief — Monday 10 Aug 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.6%, setting the ASX up for a firmer open this morning. The Aussie dollar also gained 0.5% to 0.7071 against the US dollar, while iron ore slipped 0.9% to US$94.5.

What's moving markets

US equities had a good run, with the S&P 500 up 0.6% to 7,757.6 and the Nasdaq gaining 1.3% to 26,690.6. This "risk-on" mood saw the VIX, the fear gauge, fall 1.6% to 14.9. US 10-year bond yields held steady at 4.66%.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open firmer, following the positive lead from the US. The Aussie dollar gained 0.5% to 0.7071, helped by the broader risk-on sentiment. Iron ore, however, fell 0.9% to US$94.5, which could put some pressure on the big miners today, despite the overall positive tone. The AU–US 10-year bond spread remains at +26 basis points, a key driver for the Aussie dollar.

World & geopolitics

Overnight, the focus was on the US jobs report, which boosted Wall Street, per smh.com.au. This has eased some concerns about the Federal Reserve's rate hike path. Kalshi News reported that Fed rate hike odds for September fell to 33% after the US economy shed 23,000 jobs in July. This ties into the ongoing "US Fed path" thread, where global discount rates influence the AUD and ASX.

What it means for your money

Your super will likely see a firmer open for Australian shares, following the positive global lead. Your cost of living might see some relief as the Aussie dollar gained, making imports slightly cheaper.

What to watch

The next big one is US CPI data, due this Wednesday (12 Aug), 10:30pm AEST. This is the one that could really move markets. If the print comes in hot, yields could rise and the AUD soften; if soft, the reverse. The live indicator to watch will be the US 10-year bond yield.

Your call

The maths leans towards a positive open for Australian shares, driven by Wall Street's gains and a slightly weaker US dollar. However, the dip in iron ore is worth watching for its impact on the miners. The upcoming US CPI print is the key event this week; a softer number could further reduce rate hike expectations and support risk assets, which would be good for your super and potentially your mortgage outlook.

Today's moves

S&P 500+0.6%Nasdaq+1.3%Aussie $+0.5%Gold+3.7%Oil (WTI)+1.2%Iron ore-0.9%Copper-1.4%BHP+0.2%Fortescue-2.3%Bitcoin+0.1%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
9,263.60
▼ -0.1%
AUD/USD
0.7071
▲ +0.5%
Iron ore 62% Fe
94.45
▼ -0.9%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
4.92%
AU–US 10y spread
+26 bp
S&P 500
7,757.64
▲ +0.6%
Nasdaq
26,690.62
▲ +1.3%
US 10y
4.66%
▼ -1 bp
Gold
4,399.70
▲ +3.7%
WTI crude
78.18
▲ +1.2%
BTC (AUD)
92,086.00
▲ +0.1%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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