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plainmoney — Market brief — Wednesday 12 Aug 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street closed lower overnight, with the S&P 500 down 0.3%, setting the ASX 200 up for a softer open today. Oil prices rose, pushing up global energy stocks, while the Aussie dollar held steady at 0.7063 against the US dollar.

What's moving markets

US equities saw a slight retreat, with the S&P 500 falling 0.3% to 7,728.2 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq down 0.6% to 26,445.4. The Dow also slipped 0.3% to 53,791.9. This suggests a cautious mood globally. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, eased 1.2% to 15.3, indicating some underlying calm despite the equity dips.

Commodities were mixed. Iron ore nudged up 0.1% to US$94.5, a small positive for our miners. Oil prices, however, saw a more significant jump, with WTI crude up 1.5% to US$83.4 and Brent crude rising 1.6% to US$89.1. Gold also gained 1.5% to US$4,428.1. Bitcoin (AUD) fell 0.9% to 90,089.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open softer, following the lead from Wall Street. The slight rise in iron ore is a minor tailwind for the Materials sector, but the overall risk-off tone from the US will likely dominate. The AUD/USD held at 0.7063, with the AU–US 10y bond spread at +24 bp, which is a key anchor for the Aussie dollar.

World & geopolitics

Oil prices continued their climb, per Reuters, on doubts about a potential US-Iran deal. This uncertainty around supply is pushing up crude prices. Separately, Reuters also reported that China's car sales are extending their slide domestically, with a shift accelerating to overseas markets. This highlights ongoing structural changes in China's economy and its push for export growth.

What it means for your money

Your super will see a softer start today, reflecting the global equity pullback, though the rise in commodity prices might offer some offset for resource-heavy funds.

Your cost of living could feel the pinch from rising oil prices, which typically translate to higher petrol costs at the pump.

What to watch

The biggest event on the calendar is the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data, due this Wednesday (12 Aug) at 10:30pm AEST. This is the one that moves global markets and, by extension, your repayments this year.

Possible outcomes: If the CPI print comes in hotter than expected, it could signal persistent inflation, leading to expectations of higher US interest rates. This would likely push US bond yields up, strengthen the US dollar, and put pressure on global equities and the AUD. Conversely, a softer-than-expected CPI print could ease inflation concerns, potentially leading to lower US yields, a weaker US dollar, and a boost for risk assets like equities and the AUD.

The live indicator to watch is the US 10-year bond yield, currently at 4.68%. If it spikes after the CPI release, expect a more hawkish market reaction. If it falls, markets will likely breathe a sigh of relief.

Your call

The maths leans towards caution ahead of the US CPI. A hot print could see global yields rise and the AUD soften, impacting your purchasing power and potentially your mortgage rates down the line. A soft print would be a welcome relief for risk assets. Worth watching that US 10-year yield for the immediate market reaction.

Today's moves

S&P 500-0.3%Nasdaq-0.6%Aussie $-0.0%Gold+1.5%Oil (WTI)+1.5%Iron ore+0.1%Copper+0.5%BHP+0.6%Fortescue+0.2%Bitcoin-0.9%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
9,232.60
▼ -0.3%
AUD/USD
0.7063
+0.0%
Iron ore 62% Fe
94.55
▲ +0.1%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
4.92%
AU–US 10y spread
+24 bp
S&P 500
7,728.20
▼ -0.3%
Nasdaq
26,445.45
▼ -0.6%
US 10y
4.68%
▼ -2 bp
Gold
4,428.10
▲ +1.5%
WTI crude
83.40
▲ +1.5%
BTC (AUD)
90,089.00
▼ -0.9%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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