plainmoneyThe nitty-gritty of property, stocks & money for everyday Australians

plainmoney — Market brief — Thursday 13 Aug 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.3%, setting a mildly positive tone for the ASX open. Gold surged 1.9% and iron ore gained 0.6%, which should support the miners.

What's moving markets

US equities saw a modest rise, with the S&P 500 up 0.3% to 7,748.5 and the Nasdaq gaining 0.5% to 26,588.5. The VIX, a measure of market fear, fell 4.8% to 14.6, indicating a generally risk-on mood. US 10-year bond yields held steady at 4.68%.

Commodities were mixed but generally positive for Australia. Iron ore rose 0.6% to US$95.1 a tonne, which is good news for our big miners. Gold surged 1.9% to 4,466.9, while crude oil (WTI) dipped 0.4% to US$82.8 a barrel. Bitcoin (AUD) slipped 0.2% to 89,911.0.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open little changed, despite the positive lead from Wall Street. The AUD/USD edged up 0.1% to 0.7065, supported by the rise in iron ore prices. The AU–US 10-year bond spread remains at +24 basis points, a key factor for the Aussie dollar.

World & geopolitics

Global markets are keeping a close eye on upcoming US inflation data, per Euronews.com. This is the one that matters most for the US Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates, and therefore for global bond yields and the cost of money everywhere. Gold and silver prices surged on global markets (azertag.az), often seen as a safe haven when there's uncertainty.

What it means for your money

Your super will see a mixed start, with global equities up but some local sectors potentially flat.

Your cost of living for petrol is still tied to oil prices, which dipped slightly overnight, but the AUD's small gain helps offset some import costs.

What to watch

The next big local data point is the AU Labour Force report, due next Thursday (20 Aug), 11:30am AEST. This will give us a clearer picture of the job market and could influence the RBA's thinking on interest rates.

Your call

The market is in a holding pattern, waiting for clearer signals on inflation. If the US inflation print comes in hot, expect global yields to rise, which could put pressure on the AUD and potentially your mortgage rates. If it's soft, we might see the reverse. Keep an eye on the US 10-year bond yield as the live indicator.

Today's moves

S&P 500+0.3%Nasdaq+0.5%Aussie $+0.1%Gold+1.9%Oil (WTI)-0.4%Iron ore+0.6%Copper-0.1%BHP-0.8%Fortescue-0.3%Bitcoin-0.2%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
9,250.60
▲ +0.2%
AUD/USD
0.7065
▲ +0.1%
Iron ore 62% Fe
95.08
▲ +0.6%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
4.92%
AU–US 10y spread
+24 bp
S&P 500
7,748.50
▲ +0.3%
Nasdaq
26,588.49
▲ +0.5%
US 10y
4.68%
+0 bp
Gold
4,466.90
▲ +1.9%
WTI crude
82.84
▼ -0.4%
BTC (AUD)
89,911.00
▼ -0.2%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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