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plainmoney — Market brief — Friday 14 Aug 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.7%, as traders dialled back expectations for US rate hikes. This sets the ASX 200 up for a firmer open today, but the Aussie dollar slipped slightly to 0.7062, reflecting mixed drivers.

What's moving markets

US equities saw a lift, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.7%, the Nasdaq up 0.8%, and the Dow adding 0.1%. This came as traders reduced their bets on further rate hikes. The US 10-year bond yield held steady at 4.64%.

Oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 2.5% to US$81.2 and Brent crude dropping 2.3% to US$86.9. Gold also dipped 0.1% to US$4,405.6. Bitcoin in AUD terms fell 0.2% to 89,750.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open firmer, taking its lead from the positive US session. Iron ore held steady at US$95.1/tonne, which means little direct pressure on the big miners today. The AUD/USD slipped 0.0% to 0.7062, with the AU–US 10-year bond spread at +28 bp, a key anchor for the currency.

World & geopolitics

Global markets saw a boost as US inflation data eased concerns about further rate hikes, per Reuters. This sentiment helped lift stocks and bonds, though some reports noted ongoing Middle East uncertainties limiting overall optimism. The focus remains on central bank policy and its impact on global growth.

What it means for your money

Your super will likely see a firmer open for Australian shares, following the positive lead from global markets.

Your cost of living could see some relief at the petrol pump, with global oil prices falling overnight.

What to watch

The next big local data point is the AU Labour Force report on Thursday (20 Aug), 11:30am AEST. This will give a clearer picture of the job market and could influence the RBA's stance on interest rates.

Your call

The maths leans towards a slightly more optimistic market tone today, driven by easing US rate hike fears. Keep an eye on the upcoming labour force data; a strong print could firm up rate expectations here, while a weaker one might suggest the RBA has more room to be patient.

Today's moves

S&P 500+0.7%Nasdaq+0.8%Aussie $-0.0%Gold-0.1%Oil (WTI)-2.5%Iron ore+0.0%Copper-0.2%BHP+0.0%Fortescue-0.4%Bitcoin-0.2%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
9,209.40
▼ -0.4%
AUD/USD
0.7062
+0.0%
Iron ore 62% Fe
95.09
+0.0%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
4.92%
AU–US 10y spread
+28 bp
S&P 500
7,798.99
▲ +0.7%
Nasdaq
26,803.03
▲ +0.8%
US 10y
4.64%
▼ -4 bp
Gold
4,405.60
▼ -0.1%
WTI crude
81.19
▼ -2.5%
BTC (AUD)
89,750.00
▼ -0.2%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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