plainmoneyThe nitty-gritty of property, stocks & money for everyday Australians

plainmoney — Market brief — Tuesday 25 Aug 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street closed lower overnight, with the S&P 500 down 0.3%, setting a cautious tone for the ASX 200 which is expected to open little changed. Oil prices fell, but the Aussie dollar gained 0.4% to 0.7151, helped by a slight rise in iron ore.

What's moving markets

US equities saw a slight pullback, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% to 7,652.9 and the Nasdaq falling 0.8% to 25,980.2. The Dow, however, managed a 0.3% gain to 53,417.2. Volatility picked up, with the VIX, a key fear gauge, rising 4.8% to 15.8. This suggests investors are getting a bit more nervous. US 10-year bond yields held steady at 4.70%.

Commodities were mixed. WTI crude fell 2.4% to US$85 and Brent crude dropped 2.6% to US$92, as global markets await new US sanctions details per IranWire. Gold, often seen as a safe haven, rose 1.7% to 4,704.5. Iron ore, Australia's biggest export, was largely flat, up just 0.1% to US$95.2. Bitcoin gained 2.2% to 110,385 AUD.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open little changed, following the mixed lead from Wall Street. The slight rise in iron ore to US$95.2 is a small positive for the big miners, but the overall risk-off sentiment from the US could temper gains. The AUD gained 0.4% against the US dollar to 0.7151, likely supported by the steady iron ore price and a slight widening of the AU-US 10-year bond spread to +34 bp [why: a larger spread makes Australian bonds relatively more attractive to global investors, increasing demand for the AUD].

World & geopolitics

Global markets started the week on a negative note, per Anadolu Ajansı, with shares dipping under pressure from technology stocks, while yields and oil fell, according to Reuters. This reflects a broader cautious sentiment among investors. There's also an ongoing thread about China dumping its excess production on the world, per Yardeni QuickTakes, which could impact global trade dynamics and commodity demand.

What it means for your money

Your home loan · The 3-month bank funding spread (BABs−OIS) is at +145bp [why: this spread indicates what banks pay to borrow money above the RBA cash rate, directly influencing how they price variable and fixed home loans].

Your super · Global markets were mixed, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% and the Nasdaq down 0.8%, which will weigh on the global component of your super. The ASX 200 is expected to open flat.

Your cost of living · Falling oil prices (WTI crude −2.4%, Brent crude −2.6%) could eventually translate to cheaper petrol at the bowser, though the AUD's gain of 0.4% against the USD will also play a role.

Your savings · The RBA cash rate remains at 4.35%, with 3-month BABs at 4.49%, indicating stable but still attractive rates for cash and term deposits.

What to watch

The biggest local catalyst this week is the AU Monthly CPI indicator, due this Wednesday (26 Aug), 11:30am AEST. This is the one that moves your repayments this year. If the print comes in hotter than expected, it could increase pressure on the RBA to consider further rate hikes, potentially pushing up bond yields and the AUD. If it's softer, it could ease rate hike fears, leading to lower yields and a softer AUD.

Your call

The maths leans towards a cautious mood given the global risk-off tone, but the AUD is holding up. Watch the AU Monthly CPI indicator closely this Wednesday. A strong inflation number could see bond yields rise, making borrowing more expensive, while a weak one could offer some relief.

Today's moves

S&P 500-0.3%Nasdaq-0.8%Aussie $+0.4%Gold+1.7%Oil (WTI)-2.4%Iron ore+0.1%Copper+0.3%BHP+3.0%Fortescue+1.0%Bitcoin+2.2%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
9,058.90
▼ -0.3%
AUD/USD
0.7151
▲ +0.4%
Iron ore 62% Fe
95.21
▲ +0.1%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
5.05%
AU–US 10y spread
+34 bp
S&P 500
7,652.86
▼ -0.3%
Nasdaq
25,980.19
▼ -0.8%
US 10y
4.70%
▼ -3 bp
Gold
4,704.50
▲ +1.7%
WTI crude
84.96
▼ -2.4%
BTC (AUD)
110,385.00
▲ +2.2%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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