plainmoney — Market brief — Wednesday 26 Aug 2026 — 06:45 AEST
The straight answer
Wall Street closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.3%, driven by tech stocks. This sets the ASX 200 for a firmer open, up 0.5% to 9,103.1. Meanwhile, oil prices fell sharply, with Brent crude down 7.2%, as markets await new US sanctions details.
What's moving markets
US equities saw a positive session, with the S&P 500 rising 0.3% to 7,677.3 and the Nasdaq up 0.7% to 26,151.3. This "risk-on" sentiment was also reflected in the VIX, which fell 2.5% to 15.4. US 10-year bond yields held steady at 4.64%.
Commodities were mixed. Brent crude fell 7.2% to US$85.6 and WTI crude was down 5.0% to US$80.8, largely due to markets awaiting details on new US sanctions. Gold rose 1.7% to US$4,718.7, while copper was up 1.7% to US$6.7115. Iron ore saw a small gain, up 0.1% to US$95.3. Bitcoin slipped 0.7% to AUD 109,576.
For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open firmer, up 0.5% to 9,103.1, following the positive lead from Wall Street. The materials sector, including BHP (up 0.8% to $67.7) and Rio Tinto (up 1.0% to $179.3), will be watching iron ore prices. The AUD/USD slipped 0.1% to 0.7167, with the AU–US 10-year bond spread at +41 bp.
World & geopolitics
Oil prices fell significantly as global markets await new US sanctions details, per IranWire. This uncertainty around supply and demand from sanctions on Iran is the most-cited driver for the sharp drop in crude. Fortune reports that Apollo's chief economist believes "China Shock 2.0 is here," which could be bad news for American companies. This suggests ongoing concerns about China's economic impact on global trade and supply chains.
What it means for your money
Your super will likely see a firmer start today, with the ASX 200 expected to open higher, though global equity ETFs like VGS were down 0.2%. Your cost of living could see some relief at the petrol pump if the sharp fall in crude oil prices translates to lower retail prices, though the AUD's slight dip works against that.
What to watch
The biggest local catalyst this week is the AU Monthly CPI indicator due this Wednesday (26 Aug), 11:30am AEST. This is the one that moves your repayments this year.
Possible outcomes: If the CPI print comes in hotter than expected, it could increase pressure on the RBA to consider further rate hikes, potentially pushing up bond yields and mortgage rates. If it's softer, it might ease rate hike expectations, which could see yields stabilise or even fall.
The live indicator to watch is the 3-month BABs (Bank Bill Swap Rate), currently at 4.49%. This is what banks pay to borrow money, and it's a leading signal for mortgage pricing.
Your call
The maths leans towards a firmer ASX open today, but the sharp drop in oil and the upcoming CPI print are worth watching. If the CPI comes in hot, expect bond yields to react, which could mean higher funding costs for banks and, eventually, for your home loan.
Today's moves
The numbers
What's coming up
- 26Aug11:30AU Monthly CPI indicator AUImpact: high
- 4Sep22:30US Non-farm payrolls USImpact: high
- 9Sep22:30US CPI USImpact: high
- 1Sep11:30China NBS PMI CNImpact: medium
- 9Sep11:30China CPI/PPI CNImpact: medium
What we're watching
RBA cash-rate path
US Fed path
Iron ore & China demand
China property & stimulus
AU housing cycle
Yen carry & BoJ
AI capex cycle
Global risk regime
Sources
- Reserve Bank of Australia — tier A, free
- Yahoo Finance (via yfinance) — tier B, free
- CoinGecko — tier A, free
- Google News (RSS) — tier B, free
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