plainmoney — Market brief — Friday 28 Aug 2026 — 06:45 AEST
The straight answer
Wall Street closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.7%, setting a firmer tone for the ASX open this morning. The Aussie dollar also gained 0.4% to 0.7197, helped by a broadly risk-on mood.
What's moving markets
US equities saw a solid night, with the S&P 500 rising 0.7% to 7,731 and the Nasdaq up 1.6% to 26,541.4. This signals a "risk-on" mood globally, with the VIX volatility index falling 4.6% to 14.5. US 10-year bond yields held steady at 4.67%.
Commodities were mostly up: WTI crude gained 1.6% to US$83.5, Brent crude rose 0.8% to US$88.5, and copper was up 1.4% to US$6.685. Gold also climbed 1.3% to US$4,656.8. Iron ore, however, saw only a modest gain of 0.2% to US$95.6. Bitcoin continued its run, up 1.8% to 111,222 AUD.
For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open firmer, following the positive lead from Wall Street. The Aussie dollar gained 0.4% against the greenback, trading at 0.7197. This rise in the AUD was driven by mixed factors. The AU-US 10-year bond spread remains at +38 bp, which is a key anchor for the Aussie dollar.
World & geopolitics
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to be a factor for global markets, with Reuters reporting on "Six months of war: How the Middle East conflict has shaped financial markets." This geopolitical tension can create uncertainty, but overnight, the market seemed to shrug it off, focusing instead on positive equity news. Reuters also noted that "Stock indexes gain as Nvidia boost offsets caution on Middle East, Fed events," indicating that strong tech performance is currently outweighing some of the broader geopolitical concerns.
What it means for your money
Your super will likely see a positive start to the day, with the ASX 200 expected to open firmer, following global equity markets.
Your cost of living could see some pressure from rising oil prices, with WTI crude up 1.6% and Brent crude up 0.8%. This can translate to higher petrol prices over time.
What to watch
The next big market mover is US Non-farm payrolls, due next Friday (4 Sep) at 10:30pm AEST. This jobs report is crucial for the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. If the print comes in hot, showing strong job growth, it could signal higher inflation and potentially lead to expectations of tighter monetary policy, which might push US bond yields up and the AUD down. If the report is soft, it could suggest the opposite. The live indicator to watch is the US 10-year bond yield, which will react immediately to the data.
Your call
The market is in a "risk-on" mood, but that US jobs report next week is the one that could shift things. If it's a strong number, expect bond yields to climb and the AUD to soften as the Fed's path becomes clearer. If it's weak, yields could fall, and the AUD might find more support. Worth watching that US 10-year yield for the first signal.
Today's moves
The numbers
What's coming up
- 4Sep22:30US Non-farm payrolls USImpact: high
- 9Sep22:30US CPI USImpact: high
- 1Sep11:30China NBS PMI CNImpact: medium
- 9Sep11:30China CPI/PPI CNImpact: medium
What we're watching
RBA cash-rate path
US Fed path
Iron ore & China demand
China property & stimulus
AU housing cycle
Yen carry & BoJ
AI capex cycle
Global risk regime
Sources
- Reserve Bank of Australia — tier A, free
- Yahoo Finance (via yfinance) — tier B, free
- CoinGecko — tier A, free
- Google News (RSS) — tier B, free
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