plainmoneyThe nitty-gritty of property, stocks & money for everyday Australians

plainmoney — Market brief — Monday 31 Aug 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.7%, setting up a firmer open for the ASX today. However, the Aussie dollar slipped 0.5% to 0.7160, reflecting mixed drivers overnight.

What's moving markets

US equities saw a positive session, with the S&P 500 rising 0.7% to 7,731 and the Nasdaq up 1.6% to 26,541.3. This "risk-on" sentiment was also reflected in the VIX, which fell 4.6% to 14.5. US 10-year bond yields held steady at 4.67%.

In commodities, iron ore nudged up 0.2% to US$95.8, a small positive for our miners. Gold, however, fell 1.7% to 4,529.9, while Brent crude dropped 1.8% to US$88.1. Bitcoin (AUD) gained 0.7% to 109,820.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open firmer, following the lead from Wall Street. The Aussie dollar's dip to 0.7160 suggests other factors are at play. The AU-US 10-year bond spread remains at +35 bp, which is a key anchor for the AUD.

World & geopolitics

Concerns about yen volatility are making headlines, with the US Treasury's Bessent warning that "disorderly yen moves can destabilize global markets" per Reuters. This matters for markets because a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking. Separately, the AFR reports that the Fed's Warsh is "forcing a pivot on interest rates," which could influence global monetary policy expectations.

What it means for your money

Your home loan is influenced by the RBA cash rate, currently 4.35%, and bank funding costs. The 3-month bank funding spread (BABs−OIS) is at +151bp, which is a leading signal for mortgage pricing.

Your super will see a firmer open for Australian shares, while global equities were generally positive overnight.

Your cost of living is affected by global oil prices, with Brent crude down 1.8% to US$88.1, which could offer some relief at the petrol pump, depending on the AUD.

What to watch

The next major catalyst is China's NBS PMI, due this Tuesday (1 Sep), 11:30am AEST. This data provides a crucial read on the health of China's manufacturing and services sectors.

Possible outcomes: If the PMI comes in stronger than expected, it could signal improving demand from China, potentially boosting commodity prices like iron ore and supporting the Australian dollar. If it's weaker, it could suggest ongoing economic headwinds in China, putting pressure on commodities and the AUD. The live indicator to watch will be the immediate reaction in iron ore futures and the AUD/USD pair.

Your call

The maths leans towards a firmer ASX open today, driven by Wall Street's positive lead. However, the Aussie dollar's overnight slip suggests some underlying caution. Keep an eye on China's PMI tomorrow morning — a strong print could give the AUD and our miners a lift, while a soft one could see them under pressure.

Today's moves

S&P 500+0.7%Nasdaq+1.6%Aussie $-0.5%Gold-1.7%Oil (WTI)-0.2%Iron ore+0.2%Copper+1.1%BHP+1.4%Fortescue+2.1%Bitcoin+0.7%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
9,038.20
▼ -1.0%
AUD/USD
0.7160
▼ -0.5%
Iron ore 62% Fe
95.84
▲ +0.2%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
5.02%
AU–US 10y spread
+35 bp
S&P 500
7,730.99
▲ +0.7%
Nasdaq
26,541.35
▲ +1.6%
US 10y
4.67%
▲ +1 bp
Gold
4,529.90
▼ -1.7%
WTI crude
83.40
▼ -0.2%
BTC (AUD)
109,820.00
▲ +0.7%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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