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plainmoney — Market brief — Thursday 03 Sep 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.5%, setting the ASX up for a firmer open today. Iron ore jumped 3.4% to US$99.3, which is good news for our big miners and the Aussie dollar.

What's moving markets

US shares had a solid night, with the S&P 500 up 0.5% to 7,666.6, the Nasdaq up 0.5% to 26,217.8, and the Dow up 0.6% to 53,061.9. The Russell 2000, which tracks smaller companies, did even better, rising 1.1% to 2,953.2. This signals a broad risk-on mood. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, fell 7.0% to 15.2, suggesting less anxiety in the market.

Commodities were strong. Iron ore surged 3.4% to US$99.3, a significant move for Australia. Gold was up 2.0% to 4,434.5, and copper gained 1.5% to 6.607. Both WTI crude and Brent crude also saw modest gains, up 0.6% to 90.8 and 0.8% to 95.4 respectively. Bitcoin slipped 0.4% to 107,832 AUD.

For Australia: The firmer Wall Street close means the ASX 200 is expected to open higher today. The big jump in iron ore is a direct boost for our mining sector and should support the Aussie dollar. The AUD/USD is currently at 0.7173, up a tiny 0.0%. Our 10-year bond yield is 5.02%, with the AU–US 10y spread at +23 bp, which is a key driver for the Aussie dollar's value.

World & geopolitics

Global bond markets are still a talking point, with headlines from The Guardian and Reuters discussing a sell-off and rising government debt. This is important because higher bond yields globally can impact everything from mortgage rates to company valuations.

What it means for your money

Your super will likely see a positive start to the day, given the firmer global markets and the expected lift for the ASX.

Your cost of living could see some pressure from oil prices, which were up overnight, potentially impacting petrol costs.

What to watch

The next big event is the US Non-farm payrolls report, due this Friday (4 Sep), 10:30pm AEST. This is the one that moves markets.

Possible outcomes: If the jobs number comes in hotter than expected, it could signal a stronger US economy, potentially leading to higher US interest rate expectations. This might push US bond yields up, and could see the AUD soften against the USD. If the print is softer, it could suggest the US economy is slowing, which might ease rate hike fears, potentially seeing US yields fall and the AUD strengthen.

The live indicator to watch is the US 10-year bond yield, currently at 4.80%. A significant move up or down after the report will tell you how the market is interpreting the data.

Your call

The maths leans towards a firmer open for the ASX today, largely thanks to Wall Street's positive lead and the strong iron ore price. Keep an eye on that US jobs report tomorrow night. A surprisingly strong number could see global bond yields tick up, which might put a bit of a dampener on the risk-on mood and potentially impact the AUD.

Today's moves

S&P 500+0.5%Nasdaq+0.5%Aussie $+0.0%Gold+2.0%Oil (WTI)+0.6%Iron ore+3.4%Copper+1.5%BHP-3.3%Fortescue-4.6%Bitcoin-0.4%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
9,066.70
▼ -0.1%
AUD/USD
0.7173
+0.0%
Iron ore 62% Fe
99.33
▲ +3.4%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
5.02%
AU–US 10y spread
+23 bp
S&P 500
7,666.60
▲ +0.5%
Nasdaq
26,217.83
▲ +0.5%
US 10y
4.80%
+0 bp
Gold
4,434.50
▲ +2.0%
WTI crude
90.76
▲ +0.6%
BTC (AUD)
107,832.00
▼ -0.4%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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