plainmoneyThe nitty-gritty of property, stocks & money for everyday Australians

plainmoney — Market brief — Friday 04 Sep 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street rallied overnight, with the S&P 500 up 1.1%, setting the ASX up for a firmer open this morning. The Aussie dollar also jumped 0.8% to 0.7204, but iron ore slipped 1.6% to US$97.7, which will weigh on the big miners.

What's moving markets

US equities saw a strong session, with the S&P 500 up 1.1% to 7,747.7, the Nasdaq up 1.4% to 26,584.1, and the Dow up 1.2% to 53,686.1. This risk-on mood was helped by bond yields easing after Fed comments. The VIX, a measure of market fear, fell 5.8% to 14.3.

In commodities, iron ore fell 1.6% to US$97.7, which is a drag on Australia's biggest export. Gold, however, jumped 3.5% to 4,519.1, and copper was up 2.6% to 6.6715. Oil prices were mixed, with WTI crude up 0.8% to 91.7 and Brent crude up 0.2% to 95.8. Bitcoin surged 4.9% to 113,157 AUD.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open firmer, taking its lead from the positive Wall Street session. The Aussie dollar gained 0.8% against the US dollar to 0.7204, but it fell 2.0% against the Japanese Yen to 112.2. The fall in iron ore will likely put pressure on the Materials sector, particularly the big miners like BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue, despite their individual gains yesterday.

World & geopolitics

Global bond markets are a key concern, with headlines from CommBank and SMH.com.au pointing to investor worries and a "dual threat" that could impact markets. Oil remains a significant driver, with OilPrice.com reporting that UK borrowing costs surged due to an oil shock. This highlights how commodity prices can quickly ripple through global financial systems.

What it means for your money

Your super will see a mixed picture today. The positive global equity markets should provide a tailwind, but the fall in iron ore could weigh on the Australian Materials sector, which is a significant part of many super portfolios.

Your cost of living could see some pressure from the slight rise in oil prices, which impacts petrol costs.

Your savings are still influenced by the RBA cash rate at 4.35%, with bank funding spreads (3-month BABs at 4.60%) indicating the cost for banks to borrow money.

What to watch

The biggest event on the horizon is the US Non-farm payrolls report, due this Friday (4 Sep) at 10:30pm AEST. This is a tier-1 catalyst for global markets.

If the jobs print comes in hotter than expected, it could signal a stronger US economy, potentially leading the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer. This would likely push US bond yields up and could put downward pressure on the AUD. Conversely, a softer-than-expected report might suggest a cooling economy, potentially leading to lower yields and a stronger AUD. The live indicator to watch is the US 10-year bond yield, currently at 4.76%.

Your call

The maths leans towards a firmer open for the ASX, driven by Wall Street's rally. However, the dip in iron ore is a counter-force for our big miners. The US jobs report tonight is the one that could shift the global interest rate outlook, which in turn impacts the AUD and the broader risk sentiment. Worth watching the US 10-year bond yield for clues on how the market is interpreting the data.

Today's moves

S&P 500+1.1%Nasdaq+1.4%Aussie $+0.8%Gold+3.5%Oil (WTI)+0.8%Iron ore-1.6%Copper+2.6%BHP+0.8%Fortescue+2.0%Bitcoin+4.9%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
8,978.40
▼ -1.0%
AUD/USD
0.7204
▲ +0.8%
Iron ore 62% Fe
97.72
▼ -1.6%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
5.02%
AU–US 10y spread
+26 bp
S&P 500
7,747.71
▲ +1.1%
Nasdaq
26,584.06
▲ +1.4%
US 10y
4.76%
▼ -3 bp
Gold
4,519.10
▲ +3.5%
WTI crude
91.71
▲ +0.8%
BTC (AUD)
113,157.00
▲ +4.9%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

Free daily brief →