plainmoneyThe nitty-gritty of property, stocks & money for everyday Australians

plainmoney — Market brief — Wednesday 23 Sep 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street was flat overnight, with the S&P 500 down just 0.0%, so the ASX 200 is set to open little changed. Iron ore fell 0.1% to US$97.5, which will keep a lid on the big miners and the Aussie dollar, which slipped 0.1% to 0.7117.

What's moving markets

US equities were mixed overnight. The S&P 500 closed at 7,764.6, down 0.0%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.5% to 27,244.3. The Dow fell 0.4% to 51,863.7. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, dropped 4.4% to 14.2, suggesting a calmer mood.

In commodities, iron ore fell 0.1% to US$97.5. WTI crude oil dropped 6.0% to US$90, and Brent crude was down 1.5% to US$98.8. Gold gained 0.3% to 4,396.9, while copper jumped 3.2% to 6.901. Bitcoin (AUD) fell 0.6% to 121,347.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open little changed. The AUD/USD slipped 0.1% to 0.7117, partly due to the slight dip in iron ore prices. The AU–US 10-year bond spread remains at +38 bp, which is a key factor for the Aussie dollar's value.

World & geopolitics

Global oil prices dropped below US$100 a barrel, per The New York Times, which is a positive for global markets and could ease inflationary pressures. Reuters reported that EU rail suppliers are missing out on €97 billion a year due to closed markets, highlighting ongoing trade friction. Meanwhile, BioSpectrum Asia noted that Korean medtech firm AIMD is expanding its AI-guided video laryngoscope to global markets, showing the continued push of AI into new sectors.

What it means for your money

Your super will see little change from the flat global equity markets overnight. Your cost of living could see some relief at the petrol pump if the drop in global oil prices holds.

What to watch

The next big local data point is the AU Monthly CPI indicator, due next Wednesday (30 Sep) at 11:30am AEST. This is the one that moves the needle on RBA cash rate expectations. If the inflation print comes in hotter than expected, the market could price in a higher chance of a rate hike, which would likely push up bond yields and potentially strengthen the AUD. If it's softer, the reverse could happen.

Your call

The market is quiet, but the CPI print next week is the one to watch. The maths leans towards inflation being the key driver for any RBA action. A hot print would mean higher yields and potentially higher mortgage rates; a soft print could ease that pressure.

Today's moves

S&P 500-0.0%Nasdaq+0.5%Aussie $-0.1%Gold+0.3%Oil (WTI)-6.0%Iron ore-0.1%Copper+3.2%BHP+0.7%Fortescue+0.2%Bitcoin-0.6%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
8,731.90
+0.0%
AUD/USD
0.7117
▼ -0.1%
Iron ore 62% Fe
97.51
▼ -0.1%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
5.35%
AU–US 10y spread
+38 bp
S&P 500
7,764.64
+0.0%
Nasdaq
27,244.28
▲ +0.5%
US 10y
4.97%
▲ +0 bp
Gold
4,396.90
▲ +0.3%
WTI crude
89.99
▼ -6.0%
BTC (AUD)
121,347.00
▼ -0.6%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

Free daily brief →