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plainmoney — Market brief — Thursday 24 Sep 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street fell overnight, with the S&P 500 down 0.8%, as US bond yields hit levels not seen since 2007. This means a softer open for the ASX today and a weaker Aussie dollar, which slipped 1.1% to 0.7042 against the greenback.

What's moving markets

US shares closed lower, with the S&P 500 down to 7,706, the Nasdaq down 0.7% to 26,936, and the Dow falling 1.0% to 51,511.6. This was driven by rising US Treasury yields. The US 10-year bond yield held at 5.11%. The US Dollar Index rose 0.7% to 101.1, making the Aussie dollar relatively less attractive.

Commodities were mixed. WTI crude fell 1.7% to US$93, while Brent crude was down 0.5% to US$98.8. Iron ore slipped 0.2% to US$97.3. Gold fell 1.3% to US$4,319.4. Bitcoin in AUD terms fell 1.2% to 119,878.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open softer, following the lead from Wall Street. The AUD/USD fell 1.1% to 0.7042, largely due to the stronger US dollar and the pressure from global bond markets. Iron ore's slight dip of 0.2% will keep a lid on the big miners, though BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue all saw small gains yesterday.

World & geopolitics

US bond market pressure rattled Wall Street, per The Age, with the US 10-year Treasury yield hitting its highest level since 2007, as reported by Reuters. This signals a global "risk-off" mood, where investors prefer safer assets like the US dollar. The stronger US dollar, up 0.7% on its index, also reflects concerns about the Fed's outlook and inflation, per Reuters.

What it means for your money

Your home loan: The 3-month bank funding spread (BABs−OIS) is at +170bp. This spread, above the RBA cash rate of 4.35%, is what banks pay to raise money and is a leading signal for mortgage pricing.

Your super: Global markets are softer, with the S&P 500 down 0.8%. This sets a negative tone for the ASX open, which could impact your super balance today.

Your cost of living: The Aussie dollar's 1.1% drop means imports become more expensive. WTI crude fell 1.7%, which could offer some relief at the petrol pump, but the weaker AUD offsets some of that.

What to watch

The next big local data point is the AU Monthly CPI indicator, due next Wednesday (30 Sep) at 11:30am AEST. This inflation print is the one that moves the needle for the RBA's next cash rate decision.

Your call

The maths leans towards continued global bond market pressure, which means a stronger US dollar and a weaker AUD. If the CPI print comes in hotter than expected next week, it could put more pressure on the RBA to consider another rate hike, which would impact your repayments. If it's softer, it might ease some of that pressure. Worth watching the AU-US 10-year bond spread, currently at +23 bp, as a live indicator of how attractive Australian assets are relative to the US.

Today's moves

S&P 500-0.8%Nasdaq-0.7%Aussie $-1.1%Gold-1.3%Oil (WTI)-1.7%Iron ore-0.2%Copper+0.3%BHP+1.4%Fortescue+0.6%Bitcoin-1.2%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
8,731.90
+0.0%
AUD/USD
0.7042
▼ -1.1%
Iron ore 62% Fe
97.32
▼ -0.2%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
5.35%
AU–US 10y spread
+23 bp
S&P 500
7,706.03
▼ -0.8%
Nasdaq
26,936.04
▼ -0.7%
US 10y
5.11%
▲ +15 bp
Gold
4,319.40
▼ -1.3%
WTI crude
92.95
▼ -1.7%
BTC (AUD)
119,878.00
▼ -1.2%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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