plainmoney — Market brief — Friday 25 Sep 2026 — 06:45 AEST
The straight answer
Wall Street was flat overnight, with the S&P 500 down just 0.0%, but a global bond selloff saw US 10-year yields hit 5.16%. For Australia, this means the ASX 200 is set to open little changed, but the Aussie dollar took a hit, falling 1.4% to 0.7012, as higher US yields make the US dollar more attractive.
What's moving markets
US markets were quiet, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,704.1, down a tiny 0.0%. The Dow fell 0.3% to 51,350, while the Nasdaq was flat at 26,939.4. However, the big story was the bond market, with the US 10-year yield hitting 5.16% and the US 30-year yield reaching its highest since 2004, per Reuters. This global bond selloff, driven by inflation fears, pushed the VIX volatility index up 3.2% to 15.7.
Commodities saw mixed moves. Brent crude jumped 4.0% to US$107.2, and WTI crude rose 3.0% to US$95. Iron ore, Australia's top export, was largely flat, down 0.1% to US$97.2. Gold fell 0.4% to US$4,302. Bitcoin gained 0.4% to 120,378 AUD.
For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open little changed, following the flat lead from Wall Street. The Aussie dollar, however, felt the pressure from rising US yields, dropping 1.4% against the greenback to 0.7012. The AU-US 10-year bond spread is now +19 bp, meaning Australian bonds offer a slightly higher yield than US bonds, but not enough to offset the broader US dollar strength.
World & geopolitics
A global bond selloff deepened, with US 30-year yields hitting their highest since 2004, per Reuters. This reflects ongoing inflation fears keeping markets on edge, as reported by Reuters, and has investors starting to worry about 6% Treasury yields. This matters for markets because higher global bond yields increase the cost of borrowing for governments and companies worldwide.
What it means for your money
Your home loan · The 3-month bank funding spread (BABs−OIS) is at +167bp. This spread is what banks pay to raise money above the expected cash rate, and it's a leading signal for mortgage pricing.
Your super · The flat global equity markets and a weaker AUD mean your super's international holdings might see some pressure, though the ASX 200 is expected to be little changed.
Your cost of living · Rising crude oil prices (Brent +4.0%, WTI +3.0%) mean petrol prices are likely to climb, as the cost of oil directly impacts what you pay at the pump.
What to watch
The next big local catalyst is the AU Monthly CPI indicator, due next Wednesday (30 Sep), 11:30am AEST. This inflation print is crucial for the RBA's cash rate path. If the CPI comes in hotter than expected, it could increase pressure on the RBA to consider further rate hikes, pushing up bond yields and potentially strengthening the AUD. If it's softer, the reverse could happen. The live indicator to watch is the market's pricing of the next RBA meeting via OIS (Overnight Index Swaps).
Your call
The maths leans towards continued pressure from global bond yields. With US 10-year yields at 5.16% and the AUD having dropped, the focus is squarely on inflation data. A hot CPI print next week could see local yields follow the US higher, impacting mortgage rates. Worth watching those bond yields closely.
Today's moves
The numbers
What's coming up
- 30Sep11:30AU Monthly CPI indicator AUImpact: high
- 2Oct22:30US Non-farm payrolls USImpact: high
- 1Oct11:30China NBS PMI CNImpact: medium
- 9Oct12:30China CPI/PPI CNImpact: medium
What we're watching
RBA cash-rate path
US Fed path
Iron ore & China demand
China property & stimulus
AU housing cycle
Yen carry & BoJ
AI capex cycle
Global risk regime
Sources
- Reserve Bank of Australia — tier A, free
- Yahoo Finance (via yfinance) — tier B, free
- CoinGecko — tier A, free
- Google News (RSS) — tier B, free
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