plainmoneyThe nitty-gritty of property, stocks & money for everyday Australians

plainmoney — Market brief — Monday 28 Sep 2026 — 06:45 AEST

The straight answer

Wall Street closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.5%, setting up a firmer open for the ASX today. The Aussie dollar also edged up to 0.7015, but oil prices fell sharply, which could weigh on energy stocks.

What's moving markets

US equities saw a positive session, with the S&P 500 rising 0.5% to 7,743.4, the Nasdaq up 0.5% to 27,068.7, and the Dow gaining 0.9% to 51,828.6. This "risk-on" sentiment was also reflected in the VIX, which fell 5.1% to 14.9. US 10-year bond yields held steady at 5.18%.

In commodities, Brent crude fell a significant 8.6% to US$97.4, and WTI crude was down 2.3% to US$92.4. This is a big move for energy prices. Iron ore, however, was largely flat, down 0.1% to US$97.1. Gold rose 0.5% to US$4,321.2. Bitcoin in AUD terms gained 1.2% to 120,666.

For Australia: The ASX 200 is expected to open firmer, following the positive lead from Wall Street. The Aussie dollar gained 0.1% against the greenback to 0.7015, partly due to the slight risk-on tone. However, the fall in crude oil prices could put pressure on local energy stocks. The AU-US 10-year bond spread remains at +6 basis points.

World & geopolitics

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, per ABC News, despite inflation hitting a three-year high. This follows an earlier report from ABC News that the Fed had raised rates for the first time since 2023. This mixed messaging on rates is keeping markets on edge, as the Fed's path dictates global borrowing costs. Separately, oil prices declined in global markets, per AZƏRTAC, which is a key factor for inflation and consumer costs worldwide. The Weekly Times reported that Donald Trump is pushing to halt US diesel exports, which could raise alarm for global markets if it impacts supply.

What it means for your money

Your super will likely see a positive start today, driven by the firmer global equity markets.

Your cost of living could see some relief at the petrol pump if the sharp fall in crude oil prices continues to flow through.

What to watch

The next big local data point is the AU Monthly CPI indicator, due this Wednesday (30 Sep) at 11:30am AEST. This is the one that moves the needle on the RBA's cash rate decisions. If the print comes in hotter than expected, it could increase pressure on the RBA to consider further rate hikes, potentially pushing up mortgage rates. If it's softer, it might ease some of that pressure. The live indicator to watch will be market pricing for the next RBA meeting, which you can track via OIS (Overnight Index Swaps).

Your call

The maths leans towards a firmer open for the ASX, but the sharp drop in oil prices is a wildcard. Keep an eye on the CPI indicator this week; a strong number could quickly shift the conversation back to higher repayments.

Today's moves

S&P 500+0.5%Nasdaq+0.5%Aussie $+0.1%Gold+0.5%Oil (WTI)-2.3%Iron ore-0.1%Copper+0.7%BHP-0.5%Fortescue-2.3%Bitcoin+1.2%

The numbers

S&P/ASX 200
8,665.00
▼ -0.4%
AUD/USD
0.7015
▲ +0.1%
Iron ore 62% Fe
97.06
▼ -0.1%
RBA cash rate
4.35%
AU 10y bond
5.25%
AU–US 10y spread
+6 bp
S&P 500
7,743.41
▲ +0.5%
Nasdaq
27,068.72
▲ +0.5%
US 10y
5.18%
▲ +2 bp
Gold
4,321.20
▲ +0.5%
WTI crude
92.41
▼ -2.3%
BTC (AUD)
120,666.00
▲ +1.2%

What's coming up

What we're watching

RBA cash-rate path
Cash rate per latest RBA F1.1 (see today's numbers); market pricing for the next meeting tracked via OIS.
US Fed path
US 10y and Fed pricing set the global discount rate that flows into AUD and ASX valuations.
Iron ore & China demand
AU's #1 export; watch the big miners — BHP, Rio, Fortescue — as the live read on iron-ore demand.
China property & stimulus
Structural drag on AU commodity demand; watch PBoC/LPR and developer stress.
AU housing cycle
Mortgage cost = cash rate PLUS bank funding spreads; monthly Cotality + weekend auctions are the free read.
Yen carry & BoJ
AUD/JPY is a sensitive gauge of risk; a sharp yen rally can force global de-risking (cf. Aug-2024).
AI capex cycle
Drives global tech valuations and, via data-centre power/copper/uranium, several AU names.
Global risk regime
VIX + credit + equity-bond correlation define whether we're in a calm or stressed regime.

Sources

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